PFF Bets of the Week: NFL Week 4

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Week 4 is here, and PFF’s analysts have locked in their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.

The tool delivers real-time projections, matchup data, hit rates and the best available odds — all in one place. It’s the same level of insight trusted by all 32 NFL teams, now at your fingertips.

Here are our analysts' favorite bets for Week 4.

Trevor Sikkema (1-2)

RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts: Under 21.5 rush attempts (-135 Fanatics)

Taylor has been on a tear to open the season, leading the league with 338 rushing yards and climbing the Offensive Player of the Year ladder. But he faces a tough test in Week 4 against a stout Rams front, which ranks sixth in PFF’s team run-defense grade (75.2). That same unit earned an 81.3 grade last week while limiting Saquon Barkley and the Eagles. Don’t expect the Colts to face many third-and-short rushing opportunities in this matchup.

Dalton Wasserman (2-1)

TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions: Under 40.5 receiving yards (-110 Bet MGM)

The Browns lead the NFL in coverage grade against tight ends, having allowed just 83 total yards to the position through three games. Cleveland’s five highest-graded coverage defenders are all linebackers or safeties. Meanwhile, Lions tight end Sam LaPorta has been held under 40 receiving yards in each of his last two outings. If those trends continue, Detroit will need to find success either on the perimeter or through its ground game.

Ben Linsey (2-1)

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: Under 75.5 rush yards (-115 BetMGM)

While the Jaguars' early success against the run is partially tied to their opponents — Carolina, Cincinnati and Houston — they enter Week 4 ranked fourth in rushing success rate allowed. The 49ers, meanwhile, rank just 20th in neutral-situation run rate (win probability between 20% and 80%), and Christian McCaffrey has fallen short of this rushing mark in three straight games.

Betting the under on a workhorse like McCaffrey isn’t fun, but with a projected 10.2% edge in PFF’s Player Prop Tool, there’s solid value in this spot.

Mason Cameron (0-3)

RB Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 58.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM) 

While Warren has emerged as the Steelers’ lead back, his production has been underwhelming. Pittsburgh ranks 30th in yards before contact per attempt (0.3), a key reason Warren has failed to hit this rushing mark in all three games. The road doesn’t get easier against a Minnesota defense that thrives against the run. Warren averages just 1.9 yards per carry against heavy boxes — a look Vikings DC Brian Flores uses at the 10th-highest rate in the league.

Compounding the issue is that the Steelers rely heavily on inside zone concepts (39%; third-most in the NFL), which Minnesota defends effectively, as evidenced by the team's 72.6 PFF run-defense grade (seventh) against those concepts.

Max Chadwick (1-2)

QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: Under 2.5 rush attempts (-190 BetMGM)

Prescott has recorded fewer than three rushing attempts in eight of his last 10 games. He leads the NFL with 134 dropbacks and figures to remain pass-heavy against a Packers defense that ranks 29th in receptions allowed. Green Bay has been strong against quarterback runs, ranking eighth in run-defense grade (71.9) and giving up just 16 total rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. That includes holding Jayden Daniels — who averages 50.5 rushing yards per game for his career — to just 17 yards on the ground.

Gordon McGuinness (0-3)

WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: Over 4.5 receptions (-130 FanDuel)

After a quiet opener against the Cowboys, A.J. Brown has bounced back by going over this receiving line in each of the past two games. He also eclipsed it the last time he faced the Buccaneers, posting nine catches on 13 targets in Week 3 of the 2023 season. Jalen Hurts leaned on Brown heavily in the second half of last week’s win over the Rams, targeting him nine times after halftime as the Eagles offense found its rhythm.

The line opened at +100 earlier this week, but even at a shorter price, it remains a strong play.