NFL Week 7 Betting: Three player prop bets to consider

2T1GCNK Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (17) plays against the Green Bay Packers during an NFL football game, Monday, Oct. 9, 2023, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)

• Bet Davante Adams OVER 68.5 receiving yards: Adams is likely to match up with rookie Tyrique Stevenson and should garner plenty of targets from backup Brian Hoyer.

• Bet Calijah Kancey OVER 0.25 sacks: He finished with six pressures in his first full game this past week against the Detroit Lions, one of the NFL's best interior offensive lines.

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We’re back with another slate of NFL player props for Week 7. Totals are down across the league as games continue to produce low scores, and weather conditions are starting to pick up as winter nears.

Some windy forecasts are informing a few plays here, and we’ll continue to monitor the ways in which teams allocate touches depending on the elements they’re operating within. With that, let’s get to the bets.

Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams over 68.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM)

This is not just a bet on Davante Adams making comments that he wants the ball more, though that certainly doesn’t hurt. Adams moves all across the formation but primarily lines up as the left wide receiver. The Bears do move their cornerbacks around, but the right cornerback has predominantly been rookie Tyrique Stevenson, not the tougher matchup in Jaylon Johnson. Stevenson is a physical, challenging type of cornerback who has shown growth over the year but is often susceptible to double moves and getting beaten over the top, with a 52.3 coverage grade on the year.

Perhaps Johnson travels a bit, but the one game this season Chicago played against a top outside wide receiver with Johnson in the lineup was when they faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Mike Evans. Evans lined up on the left side on 30 of 34 snaps out wide, and Jaylon Johnson spent 63.5% of his time on the opposite side. Evans had six receptions for 171 yards in that matchup, with a lot of that production coming against Stevenson, who allowed six receptions for 143 yards overall on the day. Safety Eddie Jackson will also miss this game, which could further open things up over the top for Adams.

Veteran Brian Hoyer will get the start this Sunday, and Hoyer threw a ball into quadruple coverage to Davante Adams for 21 yards once he came in for relief following an injury to Jimmy Garoppolo. Chicago plays a lot of soft zone and Adams is one of the best route-runners in the NFL with one of the deepest release packages among wideouts, so he could be absolutely fed in this game.

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New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley over 17.5 rushing attempts (-115)

The forecast for this NFC East matchup is expected to severely limit the downfield passing game, with sustained winds in the neighborhood of 20 mph with gusts exceeding 35 mph. Around the 15 mph mark or so is where deep passing can be impacted, and with numbers this high, even the intermediate game can take a hit.

Saquon Barkley fought his way back from an ankle sprain and played in the Week 6 matchup against the Buffalo Bills despite not being 100% healthy, per Barkley himself, but came out of that game with zero setbacks and carries no injury designation into Week 7. In Week 6, Barkley started off the game with 18 carries for 32 yards, good for 1.77 yards per attempt, but the Giants did not go away from utilizing their star back. Barkley broke off several big gainers with his next six totes, finishing with a stat line of 24 carries for 93 yards.

The Giants’ willingness to continue pounding the rock despite zero success early is key here, as we know the Commanders have a talented defensive front. That said, Washington ranks 24th in expected points allowed per rush, though they show up better with a success rate tied for 12th, indicating they’ve been solid on a down-to-down basis but susceptible to the occasional chunk gain. New York gave 24 carries to a less healthy Saquon Barkley last week and now are playing in conditions that will severely limit the passing game, whether we see Tyrod Taylor or Daniel Jones under center. Expect Barkley to receive a lot of work.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers DI Calijah Kancey over 0.25 sacks (+220 on DraftKings)

While we’ve seen only a very limited sample thus far from Kancey, it’s evident his pass-rush ability is carrying over from college at Pittsburgh to the NFL. Kancey has a 16.2% pass-rush win rate and a 21.6% pressure rate on his 37 pass-rush snaps thus far, with six pressures in his first full game this past week against the Detroit Lions. Detroit boasts one of the best interior offensive lines in the NFL, with the interior, in particular, boasting a 71.7 pass-block grade that ranks seventh. Atlanta’s interior, Kancey's Week 7 opponent, ranks 19th in pass-block grade.

Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder’s 24.4% pressure-to-sack rate is the fifth worst in the NFL through Week 6, providing ample opportunity for Tampa Bay to convert pressures into takedowns. Tampa Bay ranks ninth in the NFL in expected points allowed per rush, which could force Atlanta into more passing scenarios, giving us more volume of dropbacks to work with, as well. The Buccaneers have also allowed the fifth-lowest success rate in the NFL on passes less than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, limiting the efficacy of screens and check-downs for this Atlanta offense.

There’s a game script where the Falcons need to drop back and throw to the intermediate and deeper areas of the field, which plays right into our hands here.

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