• Lamar Jackson expected to extend his 12-0 mark against the NFC when the Ravens (-5) visit the Giants.
• Kyler Murray, 17-6-2 on the road ATS in his career, and the Cardinals (-3) visit the porous Seahawks defense.
• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.
Last updated: Tues. Oct. 11, 3:45 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 5 mins
Here's a sampling of obscure, and actionable trends in Week 6 marquee games:
• For those looking to justify an over bet on Thursday Night, look no further than this obscurity regarding the Washington Commanders.
Since 2010, Washington is 9-2 to the Over on “Thursday Night Football”
• By no means should this be considered an actionable trend, and it would certainly take some nerve to bet the Over in this game. The Bears and Commanders rank 29th and 30th in Offensive DVOA, respectively, and neither team is averaging more than twenty points-per-game.
Since 2020, First-year Head Coaches are 1-11 SU on Thursday Night
• First-year head coaches have historically struggled to navigate the short week, and this trend should provide some advantage to a Washington team led by veteran HC Ron Rivera. However, it is worth noting that only twice were these first-year head coaches favored to win the game.
• This stark win-percentage may not be so egregious, and the expected struggles of Chicago HC Matt Eberflus may be factored into the line.
Lamar Jackson is 12-0 SU vs NFC Opponents
• Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has never lost to an NFC team in his young career. Perhaps the conference’s unfamiliarity with the star QB is beneficial to the Ravens offensive attack, but this might just be a consequence of the Ravens being favored in a majority of these games.
• Regardless, it is expected that this trend will continue through Week 6 with the Ravens favored to win this game outright.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints
Since 2014, New Orleans is 2-14 ATS when hosting AFC Opponents
Since 2014, New Orleans is 0-4 ATS as a Home Underdog vs AFC Opponents
• The Saints’ Home-Field Advantage is held in high esteem, but it might be deteriorating to the point of irrelevancy. The Saints have a losing ATS record in regular season home games in this same time frame, and this record versus AFC opponents is abysmal.
• It is possible that oddsmakers have overvalued the Saints' HFA when opponents unfamiliar with the team visit the Superdome, and this might be a prime opportunity to back a struggling Cincinnati team.
New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers
Since 2019, the Packers are 18-8 ATS at Home in the Regular Season
• Since Matt LaFleur’s arrival in 2019, Green Bay’s dominance at Lambeau Field has only heightened. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have consistently covered larger spreads, and done so comfortably. The team is currently on a 9-2 ATS streak in front of its home crowd, and should be able to extend that against the Jets.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Kyler Murray is 17-6-2 ATS on the Road in the Regular Season
• The Cardinals' success on the road is astounding, and the team has performed markedly better on the road since QB Kyler Murray’s arrival in 2019. The Seattle defense has been porous, and there is no fault in backing the Cardinals to cover a short spread in this spot.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Since 2006, Andy Reid is 16-2 to the Over as a Home Underdog
• Andy Reid’s teams have consistently put up points when less is expected of them, and it would not be surprising if this trend continues on Sunday.
• Through five weeks, nearly every observed metric (EPA/Play, DVOA, PFF Ratings) ranks these two offenses among the NFL’s elite. Additionally, the QB play by Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen has been pristine. The players have entrenched themselves in a tier above their peers, and the total has gone Over in all three of their matchups in Kansas City.
Josh Allen is 20-9-3 ATS on the Road in the Regular Season
Patrick Mahomes is 7-0-1 ATS as an Underdog in the Regular Season
• These conflicting trends should provide no insight as to how this game will unfold, though there is no fault in citing either one as justification for a bet made on the spread.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Since 2021, the Home Team is 7-3 ATS vs a Division Opponent on Sunday Night Football
Since 2018, Home Favorites are 16-4 SU vs a Division Opponent on Sunday Night Football
• Hesitate to interpret either of these SNF trends as actionable information. A ten-game sample size resulting in an 7-3 ATS streak is hardly large enough to blindly justify a bet on the Eagles, though it is possible that oddsmakers are overvaluing the weight of a divisional matchup on primetime.
• Additionally, a 16-4 record outright is not unreasonable for home favorites. These teams are supposed to win, and they have. The point spread in this game (Eagles -5) implies a roughly 68% chance that the Eagles win, and this streak continues Sunday Night.
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Russel Wilson is 10-4 ATS as a Road Underdog in Divisional Games
Justin Herbert is 4-0 ATS as a Home Favorite in Divisional Games
• This is yet another instance of conflicting trends that should influence neither the outcome of the game, nor which side one chooses to bet. Quarterback Russell Wilson’s successes as a divisional underdog should not be considered. This trend is built upon Wilson’s dominance vs NFC West foes, and his time spent in Seattle is not pertinent in this matchup.
• Conversely, Justin Herbert’s unblemished ATS record in this spot is notable, but the sample size is not so large that this should be considered anything other than trivial.