• Bet Bengals moneyline (+145): At the +3 price, an even better option is the Bengals moneyline, as they are the better team based on PFF power ranking metrics.
• Bet Joe Burrow o24.5 completions (+100): Baltimore is 25th in EPA allowed per offensive play and also bottom ten in coverage based on EPA.
• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.
Last updated: Sun. Oct. 9, 11:05 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
After a stretch of lackluster primetime games, we finally have a matchup worthy of waiting all day for Sunday night. The AFC North matchup has important playoff ramifications this early with both teams failing to separate from the rest of the pack through the first four weeks of the season.
• Cincinnati’s division title odds swing dramatically based on PFF’s simulation: With a loss, they have only a 20.1% chance of winning the division.
• But if they win, the Bengals' division title odds jump almost 50%. It's a high-leverage early season spot that sets up the loser with a must win game in the Week 15 rematch if both teams are still in contention.
• Everything points toward the Bengals moneyline Sunday night from a PFF Greenline perspective: The spread has also moved in their direction after bouncing between +3.5 and +3 with the price flipped throughout the week. At the +3 price, an even better option is the Bengals moneyline, as they are the better team based on PFF power ranking metrics.
• Ravens are 25th in EPA allowed per offensive play: This version of the Ravens defense has been bad to start the season, also ranked bottom ten as a coverage unit based on EPA. Without the ability to pressure Joe Burrow, he should pick Baltimore apart and finally get this Bengals offense back on track. It might not be from a bunch of explosive plays, but with time, Burrow should be able to methodically move the Bengals down the field enough times to win this game outright.
Bet: Joe Burrow o24.5 Completions (+100 DraftKings)
• All the above EPA metrics point toward one thing — a bad secondary that’s been bailed out by a MVP-caliber quarterback: A lot of Baltimore's allowance through the air has been the big chunk plays, and that should be the practice emphasis for its bend-don't-break secondary. That should open things underneath, especially with the injury situations stacking up, which means Burrow should have plenty of time to pick apart a lackluster defense.
• At the plus price, its way too enticing to not lock in: If this turns into a back-and- forth affair with Lamar Jackson keeping pace, then we should see more than enough volume for Burrow to exceed this number. Given the lack of pressure expected from the Ravens, which should force them into a number of blitzing downs, everything is pointing toward this prop being an easy cash on the over.
Bet: Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins u12.5 Rush Attempts (-105 DraftKings)
• Dobbins played fewer than 50% of offensive snaps the past two weeks: As he is still very much being eased into this offense. He did hit a high rush attempt number last week, which is why we are seeing a sky-high prop number Sunday night. But he still had fewer than 50% of the Ravens' rush attempts despite earning 13 carries.
• With PFF’s betting models pointing toward a pass-heavy game script: Lock in what should be an easy under sweat Sunday night. It appears Lamar Jackson and the Ravens passing game will once again need to be the focal point to keep pace with a Bengals offense in a plus matchup. If the Ravens fall behind early, all of the rush attempts Dobbins received last week could disappear.
· Ben went 0-4 in his Week 5 TNF preview, bringing his overall season record to 24-35 (-2.63 units).