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Same-game parlays (SGPs) let you combine multiple bets from a single game into one ticket, increasing the potential payout if your game script hits. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven narratives — how a matchup is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.
This week, we’re also leaning on the new PFF Player Prop Tool, available exclusively in the PFF app for PFF+ members. It highlights the props with the highest probability of success, surfaces matchup insights that NFL teams themselves track and syncs with sportsbooks in real time, so you always know where the best number is.
Here are our top SGP picks for Week 5, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.
Justin Fields and the Jets tilt pass-heavy against the Cowboys
The Jets have been the most run-heavy team in the NFL this season, running nearly 15% more than expected based on game situation. While that trend may continue, this week’s matchup could prompt a shift.
No defense has been a bigger pass funnel than the Cowboys. Their 0.45 EPA difference between defending the pass and the run suggests that opposing teams gain nearly half a point more in expected points per pass play. Dallas also ranks 10th in yards per carry allowed despite facing some of the league’s stronger rushing attacks.
If the Jets lean into the pass, this is an ideal setup for Justin Fields. The Cowboys are allowing the third-highest rate of deep attempts and continue to give up explosive plays through the air.
Fields has been one of the league’s best deep passers this season, boasting a top-tier PFF deep passing grade and strong EPA metrics. In a matchup like this, success through the air should naturally lead to more dropbacks. With increased depth of target comes more yardage—but also more incompletions, meaning more pass attempts overall.
At such a low baseline, it won’t take much for Fields to post a solid passing performance in a Jets win.
SGP Build (70-1 on DraftKings):
- Justin Fields: 280+ passing yards
- Justin Fields: 32+ pass attempts
- New York Jets: -3.5
C.J. Stroud and Christian Kirk take advantage of a beat-up Ravens defense
The most telling indicator of this matchup may be the Ravens’ injury report, which has left the team especially decimated in the secondary.
Game status vs. Texans pic.twitter.com/br78jtqZtE
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 3, 2025
The Ravens have played man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL this season. And as we’ve discussed often in this space, man coverage puts a premium on individual talent — better wide receivers beat lesser cornerbacks, and vice versa.
While Nico Collins has a strong matchup overall, he’ll primarily face Nate Wiggins, who profiles as a legitimate NFL starter. Meanwhile, Christian Kirk draws undrafted rookie Keyon Martin in the slot — a far more favorable matchup. Kirk has traditionally excelled against man coverage and, in a small sample this season, owns a massive 46% target share versus man looks.
Christian Kirk maintained one of the best separation rates against man coverage last season, along with a 27% target rate in those situations.
If he’s connecting on deep shots this week, that’s a signal not only of a big day for Kirk, but also of C.J. Stroud having a ceiling performance — and, more broadly, of the Texans offense having its way with the Ravens.
SGP Build (48-1 on DraftKings):
- C.J. Stroud: 300+ passing yards
- Christian Kirk: 80+ receiving yards
- Houston Texans: -1.5
Tee Higgins and Jake Browning exploit Detroit’s man-heavy defense
Building off this week’s matchups column, this is a spot where I want to target the Bengals’ pass catchers — especially Tee Higgins — against a man-heavy, single-high defense that has struggled in coverage.
Tee Higgins has dominated against single-high coverage this season, commanding a 28% target share and ranking among the league leaders in both yards per route run and PFF grade versus that look.
As discussed in the matchups column, this is a defense (Detroit) that features weak corners and plays a high rate of man coverage — a combination that sets up perfectly for the Bengals' passing attack.
SGP Build: 30:1 on DraftKings
- Tee Higgins: 100+ receiving yards
- Jake Browning: 290+ passing yards
- Tee Higgins: Anytime touchdown
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