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Same-game parlays (SGPs) let you combine multiple bets from a single game into one ticket, increasing the potential payout if your game script hits. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven narratives — how a matchup is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.
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Here are our top SGP picks for Week 3, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.
Kayshon Boutte dominates the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ man coverage
Kayshon Boutte has emerged as the Patriots’ No. 1 wide receiver, leading the NFL early in the season in grade both at the catch point and after the catch, while also earning separation at a well-above-average rate.
Dating back to last season, Boutte has consistently excelled against man coverage, where he now holds a 28% target share this year. As PFF has shown, targets against man coverage are both more predictable and more indicative of talent: better receivers tend to beat lesser corners, and vice versa.
The Steelers have played man coverage on nearly half their defensive snaps — the fourth-highest rate in the league. That sets up well for Boutte, who is expected to line up primarily against 34-year-old Darius Slay, a corner who currently ranks in the bottom 15 in separation prevented.
If Drake Maye is able to exploit this matchup and attack Pittsburgh’s man-heavy approach, it would suggest the market overvalues the Steelers’ defense. That shifts the game script in New England’s favor more than current odds might imply.
SGP Build: 55-1 on DraftKings
- WR Kayshon Boutte: 90+ receiving yards
- QB Drake Maye: 280+ passing yards
- New England Patriots: -1.5
WR Zay Flowers is in an eruption spot against a Lions defense that leans heavily on single-high coverage
The Lions have used single-high coverage on a league-high 70% of defensive snaps this season.
This is a coverage structure Zay Flowers thrived against last season, posting elite per-route production and strong underlying separation metrics.
He’s picked up right where he left off, too. So far this year, Flowers has earned a target on 50% of dropbacks against single-high looks, averaging a massive 5.6 yards per route run.
If the Ravens start connecting on explosive plays to Flowers, it likely signals a game script where they’re moving the ball at will and taking control against Detroit.
SGP Build: 49-1 on DraftKings
- WR Zay Flowers: 150+ receiving yards
- Baltimore Ravens: -5.5
- WR Zay Flowers: Anytime TD
The New York Jets lean on the passing game to take advantage of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ pass-funnel defense
The Jets have opened the season with a run-heavy approach, posting a run rate 15% above expectation. While that trend could continue, it may be more reflective of Justin Fields' presence, as the Jets aim to use his legs as the focal point of the offense.
Tyrod Taylor is mobile, but he doesn’t pose the same rushing threat as Fields. That could lead the Jets to adopt a more balanced approach this week against the Buccaneers.
As for the matchup, Tampa Bay remains a classic pass funnel under Todd Bowles—ranking second in run defense success rate but eighth-worst against the pass. That setup could prompt the Jets to throw more than the market expects.
The last time we saw Tyrod Taylor, he played with clear intent to push the ball downfield, finishing 2023 with the fifth-highest average depth of target and the fifth-best PFF deep passing grade. In a game where not much needs to break right for New York to lean on Taylor, this pass-funnel matchup could tilt in the Jets’ favor.
SGP Build 55-1 on DraftKings
- QB Tyrod Taylor: 270+ passing yards
- New York Jets: -2.5
- QB Tyrod Taylor: 32+ pass attempts
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