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Week 1 is nearly a wrap, and betting lines are now available for Week 2. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts (+3) [Total: 43.5]
Although the Broncos came just a point short of covering the largest spread of Week 1, the Titans kept the game close throughout, even laying points on the live line in the third quarter. The game remained within one score for its entirety and hovered around the two-point range for most of the second half.
Despite Denver's defense leading the NFL with the lowest EPA per play allowed through Sunday, and Tennessee totaling the most penalty yardage (131) on the week, the Broncos' mistakes kept the game closer than it should have been. Bo Nix put the ball in danger often, totaling four turnover-worthy plays (tied for the most in Week 1).
That could pose an issue against a Colts defense that tied for the league lead in takeaways (three) this week. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo deployed the fourth-highest blitz rate of the week, which generated a pair of turnovers and all three of the Colts' sacks. Nix charted with a 24.3 PFF passing grade under pressure, pending PFF's reviews.
An efficient offensive performance from Daniel Jones and company also propelled Indianapolis. Shane Steichen’s offense ran RPOs at the highest rate in the NFL this week, with their 24.7% clip ranking 10 percentage points above all other teams. The Colts finished fourth in EPA per play on RPOs.
If Denver hopes to cover as road favorites, it will take another flawless defensive performance and significant improvement from the offense, because the Colts don't seem to be beating themselves.
New York Giants (+5.5) @ Dallas Cowboys [Total: 44.5]
The Cowboys put on an impressive offensive performance on Thursday Night Football, despite their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. They now get the benefit of a few extra days of rest. But 5.5 points is quite a steep number for a defense that could do nothing to stop the Eagles' offense in the first half and projects to be one of the worst units in the NFL. With more time to throw, Russell Wilson and the Giants' offense should have a bit of an easier time getting going.
On the other side, the Dallas offense might have a bit more trouble dealing with the Giants' pass rush. Dallas' offensive line struggled to the tune of a 40.6 PFF grade in Week 1, which might pose a problem against a New York pass rush that produced a 40% pass-rush win rate and three sacks this week.
Despite the rest advantage, the Cowboys will likely need another perfect game from Dak Prescott to win by this margin, certainly against a Giants defense that can take advantage of Dallas' biggest weakness, the offensive line. Likewise, the Cowboys' pass rush generated only a 53.0 PFF grade and lacks talent without Micah Parsons. Don't overreact too much to Week 1 — it wouldn't be surprising to see this game close closer to a field goal.
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