• QB Jake Browning 300+ passing yards & Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 (+3000): Metrics such as expected points added (EPA) and success rate would suggest that the Bengals have been the better offense since Jake Browning took over for the Bengals. Yet, the Bengals still find themselves as 7-point underdogs, suggesting some possible value on Cincinnati.
• Advantage Bengals? The Chiefs have played man coverage at a top-five rate in the NFL, which has worked wonders, as the group ranks first in EPA allowed per play in man coverage. But this is precisely how the Bengals are best suited to exploit them, as Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd will be able to flip the usual script for the Chiefs and instead give the Bengals the advantage, especially if cornerback L’Jarius Sneed misses the game to injury.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Many bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” or “Which totals stand out this week?”
However, the goal in this space is to follow a top-down approach. We will take a deep dive into one game a week and consider how bettors can best apply a specific theory on a team, player or trend and capitalize on it in the betting market.
Some bets will track more traditional markets, but we will more often look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks.
Week 17 leveraging tails bets
• Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (+280)
• QB Jake Browning 300+ passing yards & Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 (+3000)
• First, let us set the base rate and expectations by looking at how each team moves the ball and earns points. The EDP metric is designed to downweight fluky plays and instead capture how well teams move the ball in a sustainable fashion.
• Adjusting to more recent weeks, the Chiefs and Bengals have moved the ball at roughly the same rate, though the Chiefs have maintained the stronger defense.
• Similarly, metrics such as expected points added (EPA) and success rate would suggest that the Bengals have been the better offense since Jake Browning took over for the Bengals. Yet, the Bengals still find themselves as 7-point underdogs, suggesting some possible value on Cincinnati.
Matchup Angle 1
• The Chiefs defense has played man coverage at a top-five rate in the NFL, which has worked wonders, as the group ranks first in EPA allowed per play in man coverage.
• A large reason for this success is how good their cornerbacks have been. All three starters are above the 75th percentile in separation prevented in man coverage. Man coverage tends to produce a true reflection of the talent on the field, as the better player will come out on top more often than not, whether that be the wide receiver or cornerback.
• But this is precisely how the Bengals are best suited to exploit them, as Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd will be able to flip the usual script for the Chiefs and instead give the Bengals the advantage, especially if cornerback L’Jarius Sneed misses the game to injury.
• Further, Jake Browning has been outstanding against man coverage this season, largely because of his willingness to hold the ball and give his receivers more time to run free and exploit their matchup advantage.
• Seen in this light, the advantage between defenses on the Chiefs' side is slightly mitigated and brings these teams closer together from a fundamentals perspective.
Matchup Angle 2
• We can likewise make the case on the flip side that the defensive gap is not as wide as our first chart would suggest. Where the Cincinnati defense has struggled most is in their inability to prevent explosive plays, as they rank dead last in preventing explosive pass plays and explosive drives.
• But as much as they’ve struggled to defend explosive plays, Kansas City's offensive design is such that they are not primed to take advantage of this weakness.
• Mahomes has thrown nearly a quarter of his passes behind the line of scrimmage and has the third-shallowest average depth of target. On the rare occasions they do throw deep, he and the Chiefs rank 29th among offenses in EPA per play. Everything is designed underneath, with the team unable to generate anything explosive.
• We know the Bengals want to throw, as their pass expectation trend has remained fairly flat at 5% above expectation, top-five in the league.
• The man coverage angles make this a sneaky good spot for the Bengals passing offense relative to market pricing, and 7 points is far too many, given the current outlook for each of these teams.
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