Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 15 same-game parlay picks: Chris Olave's deep ability could spark the Saints' passing game

Santa Clara, California, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) gestures after making a play against the San Francisco 49ers in the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

While same-game parlays (SGPs) are big money-makers for sportsbooks, that does not mean betting edges don’t exist. SGPs offer two unique opportunities unavailable in other markets: They uniquely tell a story that we can create through props, spreads and totals, and they allow us to combine outcomes that are correlated through a particular game angle but will not be priced into the odds set by books.

The goal in this space is to hit on SGPs that either tell unique stories about games and/or uncover correlated outcomes available only in the SGP market.

Last updated: Sunday, Dec. 18, 10:00 am ET

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

The Story: QB Andy Dalton hits WR Chris Olave for a long touchdown en route to a big day. 

  • Rookie Chris Olave has been a premier deep threat this season, garnering the third-most deep targets in the NFL.
  • And the Falcons' defense has been susceptible to giving up deep completions, allowing the fifth-highest explosive pass play rate.
  • With a 26% target share, look for Dalton to find Olave early and often en route to a big day.
FanDuel SGP Build (+1934)
  • WR Chris Olave: 110+ yards receiving and touchdown
  • QB Andy Dalton: 250+ yards passing

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders

The Story: WR Terry McLaurin feasts against the Giants' man-heavy scheme.

  • No team plays more man coverage than the Giants, and following some injuries, the team will be trotting out cornerbacks with PFF coverage grades of 58.4, 47.4 and 53.9 — not exactly a model of success. 
  • And as we studied earlier this year, man coverage does a better job of reflecting the talent on the field than zone coverage. This could be an issue for the Giants, given their secondary talent and their matchup against Terry McLaurin. 
  • Since Taylor Heinicke took over as Washington's quarterback, McLaurin has dominated, especially against man coverage. 

  • McLaurin has the seventh-best PFF grade and the sixth-highest yards per route run figure against man coverage. As the clear alpha in this offense and in a clear mismatch against this man coverage front, McLaurin might feast on Sunday Night Football. 
FanDuel SGP Build (+1961)
  • WR Terry McLaurin: 110+ yards receiving and touchdown
  • QB Taylor Heinicke: 250+ yards passing

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers

The Story: Both teams' quarterbacks excel on Monday Night Football.

  • Since their bye in Week 7, the Rams have struggled to the fourth-worst pass EPA allowed and the second-worst success rate allowed through the air. 
  • The Packers are not too far behind with the 10th-worst dropback EPA and success rate allowed in that same time frame. 

  • What's worse is that both the Rams and Packers are getting shredded when teams choose to attack downfield, per our above graph. 
  • While Los Angeles and Green Bay are struggling on offense this year, each ranks in the top 10 over the second half of the year in deep pass efficiency (yards per attempt and EPA) — the exact areas both defenses struggle to defend. Of course, hitting on a few deep shots is exactly how passing yards stack up quickly. 
FanDuel SGP Build (+2072)
  • QB Aaron Rodgers: 275+ yards passing
  • QB Baker Mayfield: 275+ yards passing

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