Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 15 Betting: Darius Butler's favorite bets of the week

6. Packers (9): They've won five in a row and could soon get All-Pro LT David Bakhtiari, who tore an ACL in December, back in the lineup to protect QB Aaron Rodgers. Stock up. Syndication Usa Today

After a dominant 4-0 performance in Week 14, I am now 8-0 over the last two weeks. I'm looking to keep the streak alive in Week 15. My current record sits at 25-19, and we'll try to build on the run this week.


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Every week, I look at who has the edge in these five categories: quarterback, defense, offensive talent, play in the trenches and coaching.

Let’s get to my favorite bets of NFL Week 15.

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Green Bay Packers (-7) over Baltimore Ravens

Aaron Rodgers is putting together another MVP season, as he currently has the seventh-highest big-throw rate (6%) and seventh-lowest turnover-play rate (2.5%) among quarterbacks (min. 100 snaps). Nothing has been able to slow the Packers QB this season, and I don’t see that changing this Sunday.

The Ravens‘ injuries on defense should show up in this matchup. Losing Marlon Humphrey didn’t make a big difference last week against Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns, but this week will be a completely different ball game with Rodgers and the best wide receiver in the game, Davante Adams, coming to town.

Lamar Jackson is questionable going into this game, and even if he does play, he will not be 100% while nursing his injured ankle.

The Ravens will not be able to keep up with the Packers scoring in this one, so Green Bay should win by at least a touchdown.

Arizona Cardinals (-12.5) over Detroit Lions

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will start his third game since returning from injury, and he clearly has the clear edge over Lions QB Jared Goff in his matchup. The Cardinals offense should be able to put up a ton of points against this Lions defense.

Quarterback comparison
Metric Murray Goff
PFF Grade 84.7 59.6
Passer Rating When Clean 110.9 96.9
Passer Rating Under Pressure 91.1 59.0
Big-Time Throw % 9.0% 2.3%
Turnover-Worthy Play % 2.3% 3.1%

James Conner and Chase Edmonds (return from IR) are both expected to play, so Arizona's ground game should operate at a high-level on Sunday. Conner is second in the NFL in rushing yards while boasting a notable 78.7 grade (12th among RBs). Edmonds, on the other hand, leads RBs (min. 50 snaps) in yards per carry (5.7).

The Cardinals have played lights out this season on the road, as they are currently undefeated (7-0) when traveling outside the cozy confines of State Farm Stadium. Arizona should put up a ton of points against a Detroit team that just gave up 38 points to the Denver Broncos last week. The Lions currently carry the dubious distinction as PFF's lowest graded defense (46.3) this year.

I believe the Cardinals win by multiple scores.

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Dog of the day: Cincinnati Bengals ML (+134) over Denver Broncos

Fresh off a disappointing overtime loss to the San Francisco 49ers, I believe the Bengals will get back on track and keep their playoff hopes afloat this week against the Broncos.

Bengals QB Joe Burrow is playing at an incredibly high level this season, boasting the third-best PFF grade among quarterbacks (min. 50 snaps) this season. After posting a mediocre 3.6% big-time throw rate as a rookie, Burrow has almost double that this season, boasting an impressive 6.5% big-time throw rate (fifth among QBs, min. 50 snaps) this season.

Teddy Bridgewater, on the other hand, has played well at times this season, but his overall performance this season pales in comparison to Burrow, as Bridgewater's 72.4 passing grade ranks 19th among QBs.

Even though the Bengals are traveling to Denver, I believe they will come out of this matchup victorious.


Darius Butler is a former NFL free safety. He was drafted by the New England Patriots in the second round of the 2009 NFL Draft. He has also played for the Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts.

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