• Bet on Christian McCaffrey to go over 117.5 combined rushing and receiving yards: McCaffrey just posted 139 yards against the Seahawks two weeks ago, and he is expected to get additional playing time this week at home.
• Bet on David Montgomery as an anytime TD scorer (+100 FanDuel): He should have multiple scoring opportunities against a suspect defense that allowed more than 30 points to the Lions just a couple of weeks ago.
• Get $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins, plus a profit boost token every day. Join FanDuel today!
Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes
Our turbulent midseason NFL betting run has passed, and we are back to a steady profit through Week 13.
Over the past week, Cooper Kupp went under his receiving total, Christian Watson went over his total and George Pickens went under his total for three losing bets, but David Montgomery scored against the Saints, Evan Engram went over both of his receiving totals and Bailey Zappe cleared the alternate line on Thursday night for a total of 0.58 units of profit, with us betting to win one unit per bet. The season totals stand at 7.22 units of profit for a 7.49% return on investment.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers — Christian McCaffrey Over 117.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel or -115 Caesars)
49ers running back Elijah Mitchell is doubtful to play, which should mean more snaps for McCaffrey rather than the team distributing snaps to backup running backs. But this bet is mostly because of the Seahawks struggling in all departments against running backs.
Adjusting for opponent strength and down and distance, among other things, the Seahawks are allowing 0.57 rushing yards over expectation since Week 8, ranking 10th worst. Seattle is also allowing the sixth-most personnel-adjusted receiving yards over that same period. The Seahawks face the best rushing and receiving running back in the league, one who just posted 139 yards against them two weeks ago, and he is expected to get additional playing time at home. This line is a few yards too low.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears — David Montgomery Anytime TD (+100 FanDuel)
Last week, we highlighted Montgomery as an anytime touchdown scorer at -130 odds against the Saints, and it won early. While the expected scoring is lower this week, I do not believe the adjustment is worth 30 cents to this line, so there is no reason to not bet on this again.
Montgomery is still the lead back in this rushing offense and the premium back at the goal line. He should have multiple scoring opportunities against a suspect defense that allowed more than 30 points to the Lions just a couple of weeks ago.