• The Seahawks offense has been inconsistent: Seattle's spike weeks on offense seem to have little to do with easy defensive opponents, as two of their worst games have come against the bottom-tier defenses of the New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams, and two of their best games on offense came against the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions.
• Stafford to return with a bang: The Rams QB has been among the very best in the NFL from a clean pocket, ranking toward the top of the league in expected points added (EPA) and PFF grade when he's able to throw without pressure. Facing this Seahawks pass rush, he should have plenty of clean pockets to work with and the time to pick apart this secondary, as he did in Week 1.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Many bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” or “Which totals stand out this week?”
However, the goal in this space is to follow a top-down approach. We will take a deep dive into one game a week and consider how bettors can best apply a specific theory on a team, player or trend and capitalize on it in the betting market.
Some bets will track more traditional markets, but we will more often look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks.
Best Bets
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Los Angeles Rams: -5.5 (+210)
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QB Matthew Stafford: 300+ passing yards and Los Angeles Rams -5.5 (+1000)
• Let us start by looking at the base rates and how the teams stack up fundamentally. On offense, the teams appear similar in their ability to move the ball, with the Rams fielding the slightly worse defense.
• But included in the Rams' number here is a sample — albeit a small sample — of plays without Matthew Stafford at quarterback. If we look only at the plays with the Rams’ starter in the lineup, the team jumps nearly 0.2 points (equivalent to two points per game) in their offensive efficiency, rendering them a clearly better offense this season.
• Further, if we look at the Seattle Seahawks game by game and follow the trend line, we see that the offense has been extremely inconsistent. Their spike weeks on offense seem to have little to do with easy defensive opponents, as two of their worst games have come against the bottom-tier defenses of the New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams, and two of their best games on offense came against the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions.
• With quarterback Matthew Stafford at the helm, the Rams have been remarkably consistent — league-average or better in every game.
• The Rams' most successful games have come against teams with weak pass-rush units, such as the Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals. This leads us to our matchup angle for this game.
Matchup Angle
• Given Matthew Stafford‘s traits as a limited scrambler, we want to be betting on Stafford in spots where he has the situational advantage, particularly against weak pass rushes. It is no coincidence that Stafford has had his best games against weak pass rushes and his worst against some of the more dominant ones.
• Over the last five weeks of the season, the Seahawks rank toward the bottom of the league in pressure rate, especially quick-pressure rate, ranking in the bottom quartile in both categories.
• Stafford has been among the very best in the NFL from a clean pocket, ranking toward the top of the league in expected points added (EPA) and PFF grade when he's able to throw without pressure. Facing this Seahawks pass rush, he should have plenty of clean pockets to work with and the time to pick apart this secondary, as he did in Week 1.
• With a healthy Stafford, the Rams will want to air it out in a game that could become a shootout. I’m happy to lay the points and bet on Stafford to outduel Geno Smith and the Seahawks.
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