Betting News & Analysis

Best Teasers Bets NFL Week 11: San Francisco 49ers laying less than FG in Arizona

November 13, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) is tackled by Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Khalil Mack (52) during the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Tease 49ers -2 (from -8) at Cardinals + Eagles -.5 (from -6.5) at Colts: Top-rated defense has an edge against Arizona (No. 18 in success rate); No. 4 in pass EPA, Philly poised to rebound at Indy (7th-worst success rate vs pass).

Potential teaser leg: Browns +14 from (+8) at Bills: Cleveland should have success in snow with Nick Chubb against Bills run ‘D' showing a few recent vulnerabilities (5.9 ypc allowed since Week 8).

Potential teaser leg: Bears +9 (from +3) at Falcons: Chicago's offense should stay hot against awful defense of Falcons, who have won win by more than 4 points.

Last updated: Nov. 16, 10:30 a.m.

Estimated reading time: 4 mins

With the sports betting industry evolving and gaining popularity, so is the way you can make NFL wagers. The days of just betting on sides and totals are over. 

One popular way bettors try to find value on NFL lines is by playing teasers. An NFL teaser is similar to a parlay; you add multiple legs that must all win for the bet to pay out. The key difference from parlays is that a teaser allows you to buy points like 6, 6.5 or 7 in a direction that lowers risk.

Teaser Tips to Follow

• Never Cross over 0

• Tease through key numbers 3 & 7

• Tease games with lower totals, ideally anything 49 or less.

Here are four teaser legs I like, along with my favorite play: 

Favorite 2-team, 6-point teaser legs in Week 11

Cleveland Browns +14 (from +8) @ Buffalo Bills

• The weather could play a huge factor in this Week 11 matchup. Reports say Buffalo could get up to two inches of snow by gameday. If this is true, the Browns have a clear advantage with their run game against a Bills defense permitting 5.9 yards per carry since Week 8 and now graded 27th by PFF defending the run (46.3).

• Of the Browns' six losses, only two have been by more than a field goal. While the Browns did their best to keep Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill under control, Jeff Wilson and Miami's running game was the biggest issue Sunday. 

• If there is bad weather, I like this to be a low-scoring game with the Browns having a real shot at an upset victory.

San Francisco 49ers -2 (from -8) @ Arizona Cardinals

• Arizona defeated the Los Angeles Rams last week, led by QB2 Colt McCoy and his 76.6 PFF Passing Grade. 

Kyler Murray should be back for Monday night, and because of his dynamic playmaking skills, I find it hard to foresee the 49ers covering this 8-point spread. Arizona's offense has been disappointing all season, but with the return of DeAndre Hopkins, it has been more explosive.

• The most significant mismatch is the Cardinals' offense vs the 49ers' defense. San Francisco is No. 1 in the league in defensive success rate; Arizona's offense ranks 18th.

Chicago Bears +9 (from +3)  @ Atlanta Falcons

• The Bears offense is on fire. Over the past three weeks, Chicago is 9th in offensive success rate, scoring a touchdown or field goal on 48.6% of drives, 3rd-best in  the NFL. To put it in perspective, that's better than the Bills, Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Chargers. Yes, it is a small sample size, but I think the Bears' coaches are finally letting Justin Fields off the leash. 

• The strength of this Bears' offense is its rushing attack. The Falcons rank dead last in defensive success rate against the run. Even if the Falcons win outright, only one of their four wins has been by more than four points.

Philadelphia Eagles -.5 (from -6.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

• This is a let-down spot for the Colts — and a nice bounce-back game for the Eagles.

• The Colts are coming off an emotional win against a bad Las Vegas Raiders team. Jeff Saturday might be a great guy, but we can't say he is a great coach after one game. The Colts were able to get Jonathan Taylor going finally, and the one weakness the Eagles have is stopping the run.

• The Eagles were finally fed a piece of humble pie, as they took their first loss of the season Monday night courtesy of the Washington Commanders. This should have Philadelphia refocused and ready to go in a short week. The Colts' weakness on defense is against the pass, where they have the 7th-worst success rate. The Eagles have the 4th-best EPA/pass.

Favorite 2-team, 6-point teasers in Week 11

49ers -2 / Eagles -.5 -120

Kurt's teaser won last week, bringing his record in this space to 8-3-1 (+4.1 units).

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