• Tease 49ers down to -1 vs Chargers, Giants down to -.5 vs Texans: The strategy in Week 10 is backing home teams coming off the bye with coaching edges.
• Potential Week 10 teaser leg — Raiders -.5 vs Colts: 13th in EPA and success rate on offense, Vegas should play enough defense to limit inexperienced Colts' Jeff Saturday, making his NFL coaching debut on a short week.
• Potential Week 10 teaser leg — Panthers +9 vs Falcons: Give us the home team with the superior defense, getting more than a touchdown.
Last updated: Nov. 9, 8:30 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
With the sports betting industry evolving and gaining popularity, so is the way you can make NFL wagers. The days of just betting on sides and totals are over.
One popular way bettors try to find value on NFL lines is by playing teasers. An NFL teaser is similar to a parlay; you add multiple legs that must all win for the bet to pay out. The key difference from parlays is that a teaser allows you to buy points like 6, 6.5 or 7 in a direction that lowers risk.
Teaser Tips to Follow
• Never Cross over 0
• Tease through key numbers 3 & 7
• Tease games with lower totals, ideally anything 49 or below.
Here are four teaser legs I like, along with my favorite six-point, two-team Week 10 teaser:
Carolina Panthers +9 (from +3) vs Atlanta Falcons
• The Panthers put up 34 points and 478 total yards only two weeks ago against this Atlanta defense. The Falcons currently rank 31st in defensive EPA/play, Defensive Success rate, and opponents' yards per game. Only the Detroit Lions rank worse in those three categories.
• Last week, Carolina was blown out by a Bengals team that needed to rebound off an embarrassing primetime loss. It was a bad spot for the Panthers, who are now looking to bounce back and seek revenge against the Falcons at home.
• While the Panthers' defense is nothing to brag about, it is much better than the Falcons'. Give me the team with the better defense at home, getting more than a touchdown.
Las Vegas Raiders from -.5 (from -6.5) vs Indianapolis Colts
• On paper, the Raiders look like an awful football team, especially with a 2-6 record. But offensively, they are not that bad, ranking 13th in both Success Rate and EPA/Play.
• It is the defense that is the problem: 29th in success rate and 31st in EPA/Play. Last week, Vegas had a 3-point lead heading into the 4th quarter and couldn't close the game out.
• Luckily, the Raiders host a Colts team that just fired its head coach, replacing him with a guy who has never called a single play in the NFL. Oh, and let's not forget they are starting a rookie QB who looks absolutely lost. Sam Ehlinger has a PFF passing grade of 47.6, which ranks 41 of 42 QBs with at least 50 dropbacks.
San Francisco 49ers -1 (from -7) vs Los Angeles Chargers
• Both teams are very talented on both sides of the ball, but the coaching edge belongs to the 49ers, who are 3-2 coming off the bye in the Kyle Shanahan era.
• With both teams dealing with injuries, it's tough to say that the 49ers should be a full-touchdown favorite, but that's why I love teasing them down to -1.
• San Francisco coming off a bye has a chance to get healthy and ultimately has the better defense and offense.
New York Giants from -.5 (from -6.5) vs Houston Texans
• Another home team coming off a bye week: I like backing great coaches coming off a bye and getting extra time to prepare for a team.
• The strength of the Giants is their rushing attack led by Saquon Barkley: What is the Texans' biggest weakness? Defending the run. Houston ranks dead last in rush defense, allowing a league-high 1,234 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs. Houstons' run defense has posted a 29.6 PFF grade, by far the lowest in the NFL.
• Now, the Giants' run defense isn't that great, giving up the 8th most rushing yards (888): This game could be one of those unexpected shootouts, and teasing the Giants down to -.5 allows us to cash this leg with a straight-up victory.
Top Week 10 Teaser: 49ers -1 vs Chargers / Giants -.5 vs Texans (-120)
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.