- Bet under 26.5 first-half points: A choppy start is expected due to the Jacksonville Jaguars coming off an emotional victory and also ranking in the middle of the pack when using their scripted plays to start a game.
- Bet JuJu Smith-Schuster u4.5 receptions: Travis Kelce looks poised to crush against a Jaguars defense that ranks dead last in coverage against opposing tight ends, which may limit Smith-Schuster's ability to beat his reception prop.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
The spread hasn't moved much for this matchup, as we've been sitting between -8.5 and -9 all week. With little injury news driving movement, this looks to be a spot where books are trying to balance or negate a high volume of teaser legs on this spread.
Both PFF Greenline and the play-by-play simulation agree on this spread being priced correctly, and the accuracy makes a teaser leg all the more appealing, as teasers perform best when books are at their sharpest.
The total appears to be the spot where the betting market is off from PFF models, as both Greenline and the play-by-play simulation find some value on the under side of the 52.5-point spread.
Kansas City is coming off of a bye, where Andy Reid has historically been dominant, and the Chiefs do continue to put forth one of the highest expected points added (EPA) on scripted pass plays in the NFL. Jacksonville, on the other hand, ranks inside the middle of the pack in the effectiveness of their scripted play set.
If the game finishes with less than 52.5 points, which Greenline and the play-by-play simulation project, then it's easy to assume that the game should be on pace to hit the under on the first-half spread as well. A choppy start to this game could lead to a chaotic finish, which is why bettinging on the under 26.5 points in the first half is the best bet to make in this matchup.
Pick: U26.5 First Half -105 (DraftKings; bet playable to -115)
Player props continue to be one of the best approaches to betting on the NFL. If interested in macro trends from the past three seasons, check out my midseason prop article here.
One way to consistently find defined edges without blindly betting unders is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for the NFL Saturday game.
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