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NFL Betting: Super Bowl spreads, totals, props to bet before lines move

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) cuts against Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt (29) in the first quarter of the AFC championship NFL game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Jan. 29, 2023, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The Chiefs led 13-6 at halftime. Mandatory Credit: Sam Greene-USA TODAY Sports

• Eagles vs. 49ers UNDER 49.5 points: A combination of injuries and both teams looking to lean on the run game makes the under on the total an enticing bet.

• Consider Kenneth Gainwell props: He has 29 touches over the past two weeks, so keep an eye on his combined rushing/receiving yardage prop.

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Estimated Reading Time: 9 mins

The only smart way to bet on the Super Bowl is with props. With the spread and total pounded into efficiency and the gargantuan props offering, this is a betting paradise. All of our early props angles can be heard on the most recent edition of the PFF Forecast Podcast. To make sure you don’t miss anything, join in on the action with the PFF Betting Discord here.

Updated: Feb. 7, 6:45 a.m.


Super Bowl Props

Brad: Patrick Mahomes passing TDs (-0.5, -110) H2H vs. Jalen Hurts

Patrick Mahomes’ 6.3% touchdown percentage led the NFL in 2022, and his 6.4% career mark is the highest of any quarterback who took a snap after 1970. Mahomes’ 45 touchdown passes this season are two fewer than Hurts’ 47 thrown over his three-year career.

Looking more recently, Hurts is still clearly dealing with a shoulder injury, and he himself has admitted he won't be anywhere near 100% come opening kickoff, with his two touchdown passes in the divisional round against the New York Giants his only scores through the air in his past four outings. The Eagles' elite rushing attack ran the ball down the throat of the San Francisco 49ers‘ top run defense, tallying four scores on the ground all from fewer than 15 yards out.

With Hurts missing several deep balls to open receivers — A.J. Brown could’ve had a walk-in touchdown early in the conference championship game — he may not connect on a downfield bomb that leads to an explosive score. And when in the red zone, Philadelphia will look to impose its will and finish drives with Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Hurts toting the rock.

Arjun: Kansas City Chiefs first timeout taken (-125)

Much has been said about the Eagles' game management department and how good they’ve been in that regard this season. When looking at the numbers, they’ve called the first timeout in seven of their 19 total games this year. On the flip side, the Chiefs have called the first timeout in 15 of 19 games this season, which is the most in the NFL. Really, the only way I see the Eagles calling the first timeout is if they unsuccessfully challenge a play,

Ben: Dallas Goedert 70+ alt receiving yards (+265)

The Chiefs have been surprisingly stout in coverage this season, ranking fourth as a unit in PFF coverage grade, but things change dramatically when a tight end is targeted, as they move to 16th against the position. They have been incredibly susceptible to throws within the hashes, where Dallas Goedert has made his living this season.

If the Chiefs have success slowing the Eagles' rushing attack, then Goedert quickly turns into their next best option to beat the Chiefs' defense. Expect the Eagles to highlight this matchup in their scripted play set, and when it leads to early success for them, look for the offense to go back to it in crucial down-and-distance situations, allowing Goedert to rack up the receiving yards if the game script remains positive.

George: Which RB will catch a pass first — Kenneth Gainwell (+160) vs. Jerick McKinnon (-205)

Gainwell is the favorite among the Eagles' running backs to catch the first pass. What’s interesting here is that he has longer odds compared to McKinnon than he does against Isiah Pacheco despite how well Pacheco played in the AFC conference championship game. Pacheco recorded season highs in receiving snaps, targets and receptions, and besides Travis Kelce, he is the Chiefs' best offensive playmaker. Look for Pacheco to be a staple in Kansas City's game plan and for Gainwell to make it onto the field before his Chiefs counterpart.


Write-ups from Jan. 30

Spread: Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• George: The Eagles are the better team across the board, with the exception of quarterback and tight end, where Patrick Mahomes earned a 91.2 PFF grade and Travis Kelce earned a 91.4 PFF grade this season. The Eagles have beaten Daniel Jones and Brock Purdy without his right arm so far in these playoffs, so I will lean Chiefs getting 2.5.

• Brad: Injury questions surround both quarterbacks, but the market seems to be more concerned about Patrick Mahomes than Jalen Hurts, and I’m not sure this is the correct perspective. This line opened at Chiefs -2.5 at several books and quickly flipped across 0. The Eagles do have matchup advantages all over the field, but this is not a 2020 Buccaneers-Chiefs rematch with an offensive line held together by duct tape. I think the better and healthier quarterback is catching 2.5 points here, so I’ll roll with the Chiefs plus the points

• Arjun: The Chiefs don’t have a matchup advantage they can really take advantage of as they did against the Bengals. While Chris Jones and Frank Clark played some of their best ball against Cincinnati, it will be tough for them to generate pressure against the Eagles' stout offensive line, and Philadelphia's wide receivers should have an advantage over the Chiefs' young secondary that could be starting four rookies.

Patrick Mahomes has been playing masterfully, but the Eagles' pass rush is legit, having generated the most sacks of any defense this year. Haason Reddick, Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat have all had great years rushing the passer and will now face the tackle duo of Andrew Wylie and Orlando Brown Jr., who rank second and fourth, respectively, in total pressures allowed in the regular season. I'll take the Eagles' spread.

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