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NFL Betting 2022: Week 9 spread picks to bet before lines move

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) runs with the football against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

• Bet Philadelphia Eagles‘ first-half spread (up to -8): The Eagles have covered their first-half spread in every single game so far this season.

• Take the Buffalo Bills (-11.5): Buffalo will be able to generate plenty of pressure against Jets quarterback Zach Wilson, who crumbles in such situations.

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Estimated Reading Time: 6 mins

Editor's Note: Betting lines are accurate as of post-Sunday Night Football.

Philadelphia Eagles 1H (lines not out; play up to -8) @ Houston Texans

Why to bet:

The Eagles' first-half spread has been on an absolute tear since the start of the campaign, as they’ve won and covered that figure in every game so far this season. Their average margin of victory in the first half is 12.7 this year, an absurd disparity.

The Eagles currently field the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense by expected points added (EPA) per play in the first half of games, and now they go up against a Texans offense whose highest offensive output has been 24 points this season. Houston's defense ranks around league average in the first half, but their offense has been bad, ranking 28th in EPA per play and 30th in offensive success rate.

Why to be wary:

The Texans' against-the-spread stats in the first half may look good (5-2 entering Week 8), but five of the seven teams they've played hold a losing record at this point. Against the two teams they played with a winning record, the Texans lost and failed to cover the first-half spread, despite being at home in both games. On a short week, we can back the Eagles to be more disciplined and handle their business out the gate.

Teaser: Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders & Seattle Seahawks (+8.5) @ Arizona Cardinals

Why to bet:

If  Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence doesn't throw an egregious interception directly into the hands of Denver Broncos star safety Justin Simmons on first-and-goal from the half-yard line, we're probably viewing Jacksonville as a team that finally had positive regression in one-score games. As it stands, the Jaguars are now 0-6 in such games, with some heartbreaking defeats despite strong performance in many underlying metrics. Jacksonville ranks seventh in early-down expected points added (EPA) per play on offense but has not finished drives. We also like the trench matchups again here, much like we did with New Orleans against Las Vegas in Week 7, with Jacksonville solid on both sides of the ball up front — particularly with their tackles holding up well in pass protection. 


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