Player props continue to grow in popularity, as they are an easy way for fantasy players to get accustomed to sports betting.
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Player prop unders hit at a 55% rate between the 2017-2019 regular season. 2020 has seen a higher percentage of overs hit, but Week 7 was the first positive overall week for over prop bets. This is significant, as the first three weeks were all closer than expected, but this was the first full week where the majority settled over.
| Week | Percentage of “under” wins | Percentage of “over” wins |
| 1 | 52.45% | 47.55% |
| 2 | 51.49% | 48.51% |
| 3 | 51.42% | 48.58% |
| 4 | 53.50% | 46.50% |
| 5 | 55.15% | 44.85% |
| 6 | 59.49% | 40.51% |
| 7 | 46.41% | 53.59% |
The percentage of props going under now sits at 52.8% for the season. We have seen a correction back to the downside for the majority of prop categories. At a macro level, it appears that passing attempts are down slightly based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed. Passing touchdowns look like a decent spot to take overs, especially if offered a plus money price. Rushing yard props are difficult to take on the over but can be extremely valuable unders to bet.
| Prop Category | Percentage of “under” wins | Percentage of “over” wins |
| Passing Attempts | 58.24% | 41.76% |
| Passing Completions | 50.82% | 49.18% |
| Passing Interceptions | 48.57% | 51.43% |
| Passing TDs | 48.07% | 51.93% |
| Passing Yards | 52.88% | 47.12% |
| Receptions | 52.22% | 47.78% |
| Receiving Yards | 52.35% | 47.65% |
| Rushing Yards | 57.60% | 42.40% |
| All Props | 52.81% | 47.19% |
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing our player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet.
My written plays went 0-1-1 on Monday, with garbage time production causing reception totals to increase. This brings my year to date written prop record to 38-29-1 for +5.2 units.
We are hitting the point of the season where usage is better understood. We are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. Some of the props written may not be the most comfortable bets, but being able to take a loss that is still based on sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master. Let’s take a quick look at what the betting market is implying for Week 8 Thursday Night Football before diving into some of the best player props, according to our tool.
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