Player prop unders hit at a 55% rate between the 2017 and 2019 regular seasons. Monday night saw the majority of props go over, which moved Week 14 to the third-highest percentage of unders on the season, with 57.9% of props falling short. After a week where we saw the highest percentage of overs on the season, the macro trend for props continues to swing wildly. Only five games went over their game total, which shows that projections based on what side of the total the game lands on are one of the most accurate ways to evaluate what side of the market to be on.
The rest of the season should continue this trend of more player prop and game totals going under, which is the correct side to target as we head into the playoffs.
|Week||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
The percentage of props going under now sits at 53.31% for the season. We have seen a correction back to the downside for the majority of prop categories. At a macro level, it appears that passing attempts are down based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed.
Passing touchdowns lean toward the over, but this is a spot to watch for heavy juice shaded to one side or the other. All yardage-related props continue to go under at a higher rate, which makes them great to target late in the season, especially rushing yardage props when usage looks to be split for a timeshare.
|Prop Category||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet.
My written plays went 4-3 in Week 14, with a nice rebound on Monday night to close out the week in the black. This brings my year-to-date written prop record to 71-51-1 for +14.6 units.
We are hitting the point of the season where usage is better understood. We are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. There are also situations where players are returning where usage at the team level isn’t fully understood, making these valuable opportunities to target.
Some of the props written may not be the most comfortable bets, but being able to take a loss that is still based on sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master.
Let’s take a quick look at what the betting market is implying for Thursday Night Football before diving into some of the best player props, according to our tool.
An AFC West matchup greets us on Thursday night. Little movement has occurred on this spread since it first went live. We have actually moved only half a point from the preseason lookahead number, which indicates both of these teams have performed close to expectations this season.