Player prop unders hit at a 55% rate between 2017 and 2019. We saw our biggest “under week” of the season in Week 14, with 59.7% of props falling short of their posted number. So, after a week where we saw the highest percentage of overs hit on the season, the macro trend for props continues to swing wildly.
Only four of 11 games went over their game total, which shows that projections based on what side of the total the game lands on are one of the most accurate ways to evaluate the side of the market to back. The rest of the season should continue this trend of more player prop and game totals going under, which is the correct side to target as we head into the playoffs.
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The percentage of props going under now sits at 53.43% for the season. At a macro level, it appears as though passing attempts are down based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed. Passing touchdowns lean toward the over, but this is a spot to watch for heavy juice shaded to one side or the other. All yardage-related props continue to go under at a higher rate, which makes them great to target late in the season. This is especially true of rushing yardage props when usage looks to be split for a timeshare between two or more backs.
|Prop Category||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing our player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet.
My written plays have gone 2-3 so far in Week 14 after a tough stretch to wrap up the Sunday slate. This brings my year-to-date written prop record to 69-51-1 for +12.4 units.
We are hitting the point of the season where usage is better understood, and we are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. There are also situations where players are returning from injury, yet we don't fully understand how they factor into their respective offenses, making these valuable opportunities to target.
Some of the props written may not be the most comfortable bets, but taking a loss based on sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master.
This is a huge leverage game in the AFC playoff race, as the Baltimore Ravens desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They received significant help yesterday after losses from the Raiders and Dolphins kept Baltimore in control of its own playoff destiny.