Player prop unders hit at a 55% rate between 2017 and 2019. The early weeks of 2020 saw fewer unders hit than we had seen in the past, but that has started to correct outside of one outlier Week 7 when the majority of props went over their stated number.
We have seen at least a slight lean towards unders in all but one week this season, but now things are starting to finish close to expectation with tighter pricing later in the year. Week 12 went back to the early-season split with props still favoring the under, though not at the high rate we saw during the bye weeks.
|Week||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
The percentage of props going under now sits at 53.58% for the season. We have seen a correction back to the downside for the majority of prop categories.
Passing touchdowns lean toward the over, but this is a spot to watch for heavy juice shaded to one side or the other. All yardage-related props continue to go under at a higher rate, which makes them great to target late in the season. This is especially true of rushing yardage props when usage looks to be split for a timeshare between two or more backs.
|Prop Category||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing our player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet.
My written plays have gone 4-1 so far in Week 12 as we continue to find exploitable situations on mispriced lines. This brings my year-to-date written prop record to 63-41-1 for +18.15 units.
We are hitting the point of the season where usage is better understood, and we are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. There are also situations where players are returning from injury, yet we don't fully understand how they factor into their respective offenses, making these valuable opportunities to target.
Some of the props written may not be the most comfortable bets, but taking a loss that is still based on sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master.
The betting action has been completely one-sided all week, with everything pointing towards the Seattle Seahawks in this matchup. The +3 opening number had little chance of holding after Carson Wentz‘s poor performance last weekend. We crossed 13.2% of previous margins, moving from +3 to +6.5, which is unheard of outside of a significant quarterback injury situation.