Utilizing our player props tool has been beneficial to sports bettors' bankrolls to start the 2020 season, as the ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet.
Written picks have also done well, going 60-41 as we head into the main Sunday slate of Week 12. This record is based on grading against the closing line number. One-unit wagers have profited 15.15 units to start the season when minus-priced props are set to win one unit and plus-money props risk one unit.
Totals are much more spread out than in previous weeks, but line movement has been the story of Week 12. Eight games have seen an adjustment of two or more points to the team total. Last week brought an extremely tight range of game totals, but our number distribution is much wider this week. No real weather concerns are showing up, which makes all games playable from a player props perspective.
Week 11 saw a high percentage of game totals go under, which is a continuing trend toward lower scoring. Player props had the same general direction, with 52.4% of all props going under. This is a much lower skew toward under than we have had in previous weeks, which just goes to show that some situations don’t necessarily need a high-scoring game for a prop category to go over.
Outside of situations where usage isn’t fully understood or game script doesn’t warrant a significant adjustment to prop numbers, we should still be targeting those unders. There are also situations where it's not entirely known how players returning from injury factor into their respective teams, making these valuable opportunities to target.
Let’s dive into the best player props to make as we head into the main slate of Week 12. If you would like to hear a full discussion of all player props for this Sunday’s slate, make sure to listen to the PFF Daily Betting podcast.
Kirk Cousins over 227.5 passing yards