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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.
Justin Herbert is in a good spot to challenge the Denver Broncos defense
PFF has studied how unique player traits can influence one-on-one matchups and specific game scenarios. One notable example is scrambling quarterbacks, who can neutralize a defensive advantage by extending plays. These quarterbacks avoid pressure and create opportunities by buying time, allowing receivers to create separation. There’s only so long a defense can hold up when a quarterback extends the play.
Justin Herbert has been one of the league’s most frequent and effective scramblers early this season. While scrambling data tends to be noisy, Herbert's performance in this area is notable compared to last season.
Herbert was well below average in both scramble rate and efficiency last season as he battled injuries. But through the early part of this year, his scramble rate has doubled. With Herbert back to full health, this improvement looks stable. Not only does this make Herbert a better overall quarterback, but it also has second-order effects on this specific matchup.
Much of Denver’s advantage in this game stems from its defense. While it’s just one imperfect measure, market-derived tiering suggests the Broncos are 2.1 points better than a neutral team on defense.
Bets to target: With Herbert scrambling more frequently — and with a strong prior on his effectiveness in doing so — he’s well positioned to neutralize what Denver brings on that side of the ball. I’m higher than the market on the Chargers here and will be backing them across the board: alternate spreads, standard spread, Herbert overs and SGPs centered around a strong offensive showing.
Matthew Stafford keeps firing deep, exploits the Philadelphia Eagles’ secondary
PFF has studied the importance of explosive plays, finding that a drive’s success often hinges on whether an offense generates at least one. This season, the Eagles have invited more deep throws, as opponents are targeting them downfield on 21.2% of dropbacks (excluding screens), the second-highest rate in the NFL.
That’s a significant jump from last year, when that figure was just 13% and Philadelphia allowed a league-low 6% explosive play rate.
Matthew Stafford has long been one of the league’s best deep throwers, and that success has carried into the start of this season.
What’s especially encouraging now is the addition of Davante Adams, who should provide a significant boost to the Rams’ vertical passing game. Through two games, no player has earned a higher PFF grade on deep targets than Adams.
Bets to target: I’m playing the tail outcome here — that Stafford connects on a few deep shots against an Eagles defense that may be quietly vulnerable in that area. With Adams and Puka Nacua in the lineup, this could be the version of the Rams offense that finally unlocks its ceiling compared to recent seasons.
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