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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.
Colts QB Daniel Jones has a difficult time against the Miami Dolphins‘ pass rush
One of PFF’s key areas of research has been demonstrating that not all pressure is created equal. A pressure that arrives before a quarterback can work through his progressions is far more damaging to the offense than one that comes as a late hit as the passer holds onto the ball until the very last second.
For Daniel Jones, the most damaging pressure is the kind that disrupts his ability to get through progressions. And in 2024, no quarterback in the league performed worse in those situations.
In Week 1, he draws a Dolphins defense that ranked fifth in disruption pressure rate and welcomes back Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips after both missed nearly the entire 2024 season. The secondary may still be a long-term concern, but in this matchup against a quarterback so sensitive to pressure, Miami’s pass rush has clear leverage.
I’ll be on Dolphins sacks, moneyline and some Daniel Jones unders.
The explosive Houston Texans offense poses problems for the Los Angeles Rams
At PFF, we’ve long emphasized the outsized importance of explosive plays to offensive success. While they make up a relatively small share of snaps, explosive plays are disproportionately determinative of outcomes. To frame Texans-Rams today, we need to start with that context.
The 2023 Texans showcased one of the league’s most dynamic offenses, built largely on the NFL’s most explosive deep passing attack. C.J. Stroud led the league in both PFF deep passing grade and EPA generated on deep throws, adding nearly 90 expected points on those attempts — an incredible 1.2 EPA per play.
That output ranked fifth-highest of any season since 2019, and second-highest on a per-play basis. The impact was magnified by the fact that Stroud was actually a negative EPA quarterback on non-deep passes in both 2023 (-0.04 EPA per play) and 2024 (-0.03).
Given how rare and high-leverage his 2023 deep passing season was, some regression was inevitable. But the 2024 drop-off was extreme: the Texans added only 10 total points on deep throws, ranking 29th in the league at 0.14 EPA per play.
And that downturn came despite Stroud finishing with the second-highest deep accuracy rate in the league. Regression to the mean suggests Houston’s vertical game should bounce back — likely making this a far stronger unit in 2025 than last year’s overall averages imply. It also helps that WR Nico Collins, one of the league’s premier deep threats, returns healthy to start the season.
Even with defensive improvement in 2024, the Rams still allowed the sixth-highest explosive play rate in the NFL. In a Week 1 spot where we’re chasing tails, Houston’s ability to strike deep creates a clear path to points in bunches.
I’m interested in builds around Stroud connecting on explosives — his alt lines, Texans alts and SGPs that lean into this story.
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