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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.
Buccaneers primed for explosive plays vs. banged-up Lions secondary
One of PFF’s past studies highlights the importance of drive-level success in sustaining offensive efficiency — and this is a spot where the Buccaneers are well positioned to capitalize.
The Lions' secondary is severely depleted, with injuries to nearly every cornerback, a banged-up Kerby Joseph and now a suspension for Brian Branch compounding their issues on the back end.
Detroit also runs one of the league’s highest rates of single-high coverage and has been vulnerable to the deep ball, facing the fifth-highest deep attempt rate in the NFL. That sets up perfectly for Tampa Bay to hit on explosive plays and sustain drives against a defense that’s showing cracks across the board.
As we highlighted last week, Baker Mayfield has thrived throwing deep this season — ranking near the top in deep attempt rate and overall efficiency, trailing only standouts like Sam Darnold and Drake Maye in success.
With the Lions’ secondary in disarray, Mayfield is set up to exploit them vertically, generating the kind of explosive plays that can break open this game. I’ll be backing Baker’s overs, Tampa Bay alternate lines and same-game parlays that tell the story of a Bucs offense hitting big through the air.
Carolina’s disruptive front forces blocking mistakes, stymying the Jets’ ground attack
A late 2021 PFF study revealed the significant impact of perfectly blocked run plays on rushing success.
The Jets' run game has thrived on explosiveness this season, with Breece Hall leading the NFL in explosive rush rate. While he hasn’t benefited from many perfectly blocked plays, he’s been lethal when he does, generating an NFL-best 30% explosive run rate on those attempts. However, when the run is not perfectly blocked, Hall ranks just 29th in yards per carry at 1.7.
Carolina’s run defense has been dominant in recent weeks, allowing the lowest perfect-block rate in the NFL and a league-best 18% run success rate over that span. That spells trouble for a Jets offense that remains committed to the run game regardless of game script — a mismatch that could stall their offensive production.
I’ll be backing Breece Hall unders, Jets team total unders and same-game parlays anchored around New York struggling to move the ball on the ground.
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