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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.
Matthew Stafford thrives against the Baltimore Ravens pass defense
Only the Giants have played more man coverage this season than the Ravens, who have stuck with their man-heavy approach despite injuries that have weakened their secondary. As we've studied at PFF, man coverage outcomes tend to reflect individual talent — stronger wide receivers beat weaker cornerbacks, and the inverse holds true.
This week, the Ravens are expected to start a banged-up secondary that includes second-year corner T.J. Tampa (46.7 PFF grade) and Keyon Martin (44.6). They'll be tasked with covering Puka Nacua and Davante Adams — PFF’s No. 1 and No. 18 graded receivers, respectively.
It’s likely no coincidence that Matthew Stafford has excelled against man coverage this season, given how consistently his wide receivers win in one-on-one situations. He’s averaging a dominant 0.50 EPA per play versus man coverage, and now faces a Ravens defense that plays man at one of the league’s highest rates and is arguably at its weakest point all season.
I’ll be backing the Rams, looking at alternate spreads, Stafford passing props and same-game parlays built around Los Angeles dominating a depleted Baltimore secondary.
Miami Dolphins pass rush set to exploit Chargers’ weak links up front
A foundational study on offensive line play reinforced that pass protection functions as a weak-link system—when one lineman misses a block, it can derail the entire play and significantly impact offensive production. That principle is on full display with the Chargers, whose current state in pass protection can only be described as a complete disaster.
Joe Alt was one of the NFL’s top pass protectors, and his absence looms large for the Chargers. He’s been replaced by Austin Deculus, a downgrade that looks like a disaster waiting to happen. On the other side, right tackle Bobby Hart hasn’t played since 2022, when he earned a 31.7 PFF grade.
This is about as dire as it gets at the tackle spots. The interior isn’t much better: the Chargers’ center ranks second-worst in PFF grade, and Mekhi Becton ranks 67th out of 78 qualified guards.
When Herbert has been forced to operate behind poor blocking, the results have been rough — he’s posted some of the league’s worst EPA numbers on plays with a blocking breakdown.
While Miami’s pass rush has struggled overall this season, a closer examination suggests that positive regression may be on the horizon. After ranking dead last in every pressure category through Week 3, the Dolphins have since posted a 13% quick pressure rate and a 20% pressure disruption rate — both marks that would place them in the league’s top half.
Personnel-wise, both Chop Robinson and Zach Sieler earned PFF grades in the mid-70s just a year ago, but are currently grading in the low 40s. If either player regresses toward their 2024 form, this unit could resemble the top-10 pass rush it was last season.
I’ll be targeting Herbert unders, Miami alt lines and other bets tied to the Dolphins’ pass rush disrupting the Chargers’ offense.
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