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Detroit Lions vs Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) [Total: 53.5]
Game Overview
Last season, the Lions and Ravens were among the most reliable teams against the spread, posting cover rates of 66.7% and 61.1%, respectively. After stumbling in Week 1, both bounced back with dominant Week 2 wins, each covering sizable home spreads by more than a touchdown.
The last time these teams met—Week 7 of the 2023 season—it was a blowout. The Ravens, favored by three at home, rolled to a 38–6 win behind a stellar performance from Lamar Jackson. He earned a 90.9 PFF grade, accounted for four total touchdowns, and posted a near-perfect 155.8 passer rating.
Unlike last year’s matchup, which had a modest 43.5-point total, this game is projected to be an offensive showcase, with the line set at 53.5 points. Both the Ravens and Lions rank inside the top five in EPA per play, touchdown percentage and yards per play — highlighting the firepower on both sides.
Lamar Jackson is well-positioned for another strong outing. According to PFF’s key insights, the Lions rank 27th in deep completions allowed this season, leaving them vulnerable to explosive plays. Jackson currently ranks third in the NFL in completions of 20-plus yards.
That said, both defenses bring high-end talent. Three of the NFL’s top 12 highest-graded defenders—Kyle Hamilton (92.7), Brian Branch (91.8), and Roquan Smith (90.0)—will play pivotal roles in what could become a high-scoring but tightly contested game.
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Baltimore Ravens: Over 1.5 receptions (-105)
DeAndre Hopkins may no longer be in his prime, and his snap share in the Ravens’ offense has been limited, but he remains an explosive downfield threat. Despite the reduced role, the veteran has cleared this receiving line in both games to start the season, catching all four of his targets, including three contested grabs.
Hopkins should see more opportunities this week against a Lions defense that plays man coverage at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. That’s a look he’s historically excelled against, earning a 96.5 PFF receiving grade and the 11th-highest target rate versus man.
With a 23.2-yard average depth of target and Lamar Jackson’s strong downfield efficiency, Hopkins is well-positioned for more big-play opportunities in this matchup.
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