News & Analysis

Favorite futures bets ahead of NFL Week 3

NFL Week 2 came and went, with closing-line favorites going 14-2 straight up (and Rams, also a winner, were at one point favorites in Philly). The futures market moved accordingly. Last week we saw some significant value in the futures market, and according to the FanDuel sportsbook, the numbers post-Week 2 have mostly moved in our direction:

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Kansas City +550 to win the Super Bowl has stayed the same

Seattle +195 to win the NFC West and +1400 to win the Super Bowl are now +170 and +1300, respectively

Green Bay +2600 to win the Super Bowl is now +2100

Tennessee +125 to win the AFC South is now +100

All of these numbers are still playable even at the current prices. However, we wanted to give you all something additional to work with, so here are some other futures we like:

Arizona +104 to make the playoffs

We make this more like -150 given that the Cardinals not only have two victories on their ledger, but also two victories against NFC teams and one victory against an NFC West opponent. According to our power rankings tool, the Cardinals are tied for the fourth-easiest remaining schedule, so given that they only need to be one of the top seven teams in the NFC, take this now while it’s plus money.

Green Bay -145 to win the NFC North

We make this about -200, and given that the Bears have played the league’s second-easiest schedule (behind Buffalo) while having to face the 14th-toughest moving forward, it’s difficult to see anyone competing with a reborn Aaron Rodgers and company this season in the north. 

Philadelphia -170 to miss the playoffs

This number hasn’t moved enough off of its preseason prior, especially given the composition of Philly’s two losses – one to a division foe and one to a team in the Los Angeles Rams that they might be competing against for a wild card spot. Carson Wentz has been playing like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL through two weeks, and the team has one only one in three games over the past two years against opponents that don’t reside in New York or Washington. This isn’t a good team, and if they get upset against a rested Bengals team, this price will only skyrocket.

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