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Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, where you focus on specific bets first.
In this space, we’ll take a different approach. We’ll focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.
While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.
Dallas Cowboys -6.5 @ Denver Broncos
As always, we’ll start by examining the team fundamentals and how this matchup is priced, laying the foundation for the rest of our analysis.
Here is a handy chart, courtesy of Timo Riske, illustrating team performance. Choose your preferred metric, and it likely tells the same story: the Cowboys profile as a dominant offense with a struggling defense, while the Broncos feature a solid defense and a below-average offense.
Tiering the teams gives Dallas the edge — but remember, this is a Cowboys squad that was missing key offensive pieces, including all-world wideout CeeDee Lamb, while the Broncos have been among the healthiest teams in the league.
While I typically favor elite offense over elite defense, these matchups — dominant offense vs. solid defense and poor defense vs. average offense — tend to hinge less on fundamentals and more on the underlying matchup angles that shape the outcome.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has done a remarkable job this season, creating under pressure and performing even when defenses disrupt the play. That’s where much of Denver’s value against the spread comes from — the Broncos rank among the top five defenses in disruption rate.
Create Rate measures how often a quarterback faces a disruptive event and still produces a positive outcome, either by delivering an accurate throw to an open receiver or scrambling for positive yardage.
Prescott ranks second in the NFL in Create Rate and sits inside the top 10 in expected points added (EPA) when facing disruption. On plays where he doesn’t encounter a disruptor, he’s been even more efficient, leading the league in non-disruption EPA while avoiding negative plays on those clean snaps.
The Broncos have faced the highest rate of deep pass attempts in the NFL. And this is an area where Prescott has excelled this season, as he is averaging nearly one expected point per deep throw. So, with Prescott’s ability to create and manage disruption, this Cowboys passing attack looks well-equipped to neutralize the matchup advantage Denver’s defense typically presents.
On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys’ defensive matchup may not be as unfavorable as it appears when accounting for the Broncos’ offensive tendencies. Nearly all of Bo Nix’s production this season has come against man coverage, where he ranks ninth in EPA per play. Against zone, however, that number drops to 24th in the league — and the Cowboys lead the NFL in zone-coverage rate so far this season.
Nix has been average at creating big plays against man coverage, but he’s struggled to do the same against zone, where the Cowboys have been most vulnerable this season.
And although Dallas’ run defense has struggled early in the year, this is a Broncos team that, regardless of opponent, continues to lean heavily on the pass — an approach that may prove far less efficient than what the Cowboys typically face.
The Cowboys have a slight edge on both sides of this matchup. Offensively, they can exploit Denver’s defense, which forces deep throws (a strength for Prescott) and relies on disruption (something Prescott also handles well). Defensively, Dallas’ heavy use of zone coverage targets Nix’s biggest weakness.
With the Cowboys’ consistent scoring ability, they look like the better value both against the spread and on alternate lines.
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