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Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, where you focus on specific bets first.
In this space, we’ll take a different approach. We’ll focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.
While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.
Drake Maye over 280 passing yards & New England Patriots -5.5 (13-1, Draft Kings)
We usually begin these columns by anchoring in fundamental metrics to guide our analysis, but with just one week of data, it would be premature to start drawing definitive conclusions.
The Dolphins’ defense looked particularly vulnerable last week, allowing a league-worst 87% series conversion rate. While turnovers played a key role in shaping that lopsided result, it’s unlikely to be a recurring theme, and early numbers may not paint the full picture.
While it’s too early in the season to lean entirely on the data, it would be a mistake to ignore it altogether. At this stage, the most valuable question to ask when chasing a potential angle is this: if we fast-forward 10 weeks and have full clarity, which way would we expect this line to have moved based on what we currently know?
This could be one of those spots where we look back and see Miami as one of the league’s worst teams — a real possibility relative to current market pricing. That downside tail grows even longer with the Dolphins already down multiple offensive linemen and Storm Duck in an already shaky secondary.
Before diving into the matchup specifically, let’s take a look at this Dolphins offense.
The Dolphins’ offense operated extremely quickly last season, as Tua Tagovailoa got the ball out quicker than any quarterback in the NFL. He threw within 2.5 seconds on 63% of dropbacks, nearly 8% more than the next closest passer, Aaron Rodgers. That’s been a staple of the Mike McDaniel era, but what’s notable is how shallow the throws were. The Dolphins largely ignored the intermediate range, an area they previously attacked with great success.
The Dolphins have had to lean into the quick game — not by choice, but by necessity. With the offensive line in shambles, Miami is now in its worst shape yet, potentially starting Patrick Paul (44.9 PFF grade in 2024) at tackle alongside three other linemen who finished last season with grades in the 50s. Simply put, there’s no time for plays to develop.
This sets up our first matchup angle. As noted last week, the Patriots were already a concern in coverage due to a low perfect coverage rate and the absence of star cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
The Dolphins’ offense is operating with speed but sacrificing depth, getting the ball out quickly and short of the sticks. That plays directly into the strength of New England’s defense while avoiding its vulnerability. The Patriots’ defensive line posted the third-highest quick pressure rate in Week 1 — and did so against a competent Raiders offensive line — reinforcing the likelihood that Miami will be forced into a shallow passing game, unable to exploit the Patriots’ downfield coverage issues.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins' defense delivered on its potential strength in Week 1, pressuring the quarterback effectively. Last year, Miami ranked fifth in pressure disruption rate, and with Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips back in the fold, there’s every reason to maintain a strong prior that this pass-rush unit will remain very effective.
Drake Maye‘s elite scrambling ability has allowed him to neutralize pressure better than most, and he ranks near the top of the league in efficiency when disrupted. Even if Miami’s pass rush shows up, Maye appears well-equipped to handle it, especially given the vulnerabilities in a Dolphins secondary that currently features three cornerbacks projected among the bottom 15 at the position.
This sets up as a classic weak-link defense for Maye to exploit, much like Daniel Jones did a week ago. If New England is going to win decisively, it likely stems from Maye taking full control through the air. Combine that with a Patriots pass rush that can limit Tagovailoa’s ability to operate downfield, and the conditions are ripe for a New England edge in both game flow and scoreboard.
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