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Examining Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott's 2020 passing yardage prop

The 2019 Dallas Cowboys were one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL, losing all but one of their seven games that finished within a one-score point differential. The Cowboys were a top-10 team in terms of yards per play on both offense and defense, and a top-two team in the league in PFF WAR generated by its roster during the regular season.

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They also got a banner season from Dak Prescott, who earned the second-most win shares of any player in the league prior to the playoffs. With the perennially underachieving Jason Garrett moving on to be the New York Giants’ offensive coordinator, Dallas became the second stop for Super Bowl-winning head coach Mike McCarthy, who took a year off to level up in an attempt to revive a resume that once put in him in the upper echelon of offensive play-callers.

All of the above have put some steam on the betting markets for the Cowboys, as they started the offseason co-favorites with the defending NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles for supremacy in their division — only to move to a -105 favorite on FanDuel Sports Book after some consistent backing. They are currently -260 to make the new seven-team playoff in the NFC and +1700 to win the Super Bowl in Tampa Bay next February.

None of the above, as well as OVER 9.5 wins (-150), offer much in the way of value if you’re bullish on the Cowboys. Those markets have been picked over.  However, if you want to buy into the Cowboys in a possibly more advantageous way, player props are an option.  In this article, we want to focus on the Dak Prescott passing yardage prop.

Set at 4319.5 (-112 to both sides on FanDuel Sports Book), Prescott’s passing-yardage prop is assuming some significant regression from the 4902 yards he threw for a season ago (second-best in the league). Here's what we think about that prop.

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