- Syracuse's talent turnover may cause offensive inefficiencies: It's also entirely plausible, if not probable, that Tennessee's defense will be the best unit in the game, giving value to the under on the Orange's team total.
- Notre Dame will likely slow things down against Miami: As the Hurricanes take time to adjust to their new personnel, the Fighting Irish may stick to their usual approach of outpunching opponents in low-scoring affairs. The under on the game total is an enticing bet.
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Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes
The first full week of college football is officially upon us, which means there are plenty of games with betting value. Here are some of the game and team totals that I have my eye on heading into Week 1 of the college football season.
Editor's note: All totals sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook
UNLV @ Sam Houston State: OVER 61.5 (-105)
Though it is Week 1, this matchup is actually between two teams that have already played. UNLV escaped last week with a close victory over FCS-level Idaho State, while Sam Houston State lost handily to C-USA rival Western Kentucky.
The theme for both of these teams in Week 0 was a subpar defensive performance. UNLV allowed 31 points and nearly 600 yards of total offense to an Idaho State team that went 5-7 last season. And Idaho State even threw four interceptions and twice turned the ball over on downs. The Rebels struggled to stop the bleeding on the ground, allowing more than seven yards per carry and earning a subpar 51.2 PFF run-defense grade.
Meanwhile, the Bearkats surrendered 41 points to Western Kentucky’s high-powered offense. They also allowed 407 passing yards and four big-time throws. These issues in pass defense could persist, as several of Sam Houston State’s defensive starters transferred to North Texas alongside defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity.
This game features two very functional offenses, particularly UNLV's if quarterback Anthony Colandrea plays as well as he did last week, and defenses that have already looked shaky. This could easily be a high-scoring affair.
Northwestern @ Tulane: UNDER 45.5 (-112)
AAC runner-up Tulane is hosting a Big Ten opponent for the first time since 1955. The Green Wave are currently favored over Northwestern, which went 4-8 last season. Regardless of the outcome, this game could be a defensive struggle between two teams that brought in transfer quarterbacks at different points in the offseason.
Tulane is expected to start BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff, who has been with the program for just over a month, at quarterback, though Iowa transfer Brendan Sullivan could factor in, too. Retzlaff played well in Provo last season, leading the Cougars to a 10-win season, but slowed down over his final six games (61.0 PFF passing grade).
The Green Wave are also limited by ambiguity at their offensive skill positions. Their best player, running back Makhi Hughes, transferred to Oregon, and their top five players in receiving yards, including Hughes, either graduated or transferred. FAU transfer wide receiver Omari Hayes is the only player on the roster who produced more than 150 receiving yards last season.
Northwestern’s defense played well last season amid the program's own offensive struggles, particularly in pass defense, where the Wildcats ranked among the top 50 FBS teams in PFF pass-rush grade and PFF coverage grade. They were hamstrung by an offense that scored less than 18 points per game. While their offense should improve with SMU transfer Preston Stone at quarterback, it’s unlikely to be a consistently explosive attack.
Until further notice, the defenses in this matchup are set to thrive. The 45.5-point total leaves room for a 24-21 final score, and the game could be played to a lower score than that with the chance of ugly weather heading toward New Orleans.
Syracuse vs. Tennessee: Syracuse Team Total UNDER 17.5 (-115)
Led by star quarterback Kyle McCord and several NFL-caliber offensive skill players, Syracuse enjoyed an outstanding 10-win season in 2024. Now the program must address the losses of McCord, leading rusher LeQuint Allen and four of the team’s top five receiving leaders against a tough, experienced Tennessee defense.
The Orange will feature former Notre Dame backup Steve Angeli at quarterback. While Angeli has earned an 80.8 PFF passing grade over the past two seasons, he has logged only one start and 80 pass attempts in his career. He has also been with the program only since April after failing to beat out CJ Carr and Kenny Minchey for snaps at Notre Dame.
Angeli and his somewhat inexperienced supporting cast will battle a Tennessee defense that allowed 19 points or fewer in 10 of its 13 games last season. The Volunteers lost star defensive linemen James Pearce Jr. and Omarr Norman-Lott to the NFL draft but return excellent players like Joshua Josephs and Tyre West, as well as an experienced secondary.
It’s entirely plausible, if not probable, that Tennessee's defense will be the best unit in this game. The Orange would need to clear 17.5 points for this bet to lose, which implies that they either need to score three touchdowns or engineer at least four scoring drives (without two-point conversions). As long as the Volunteers don’t commit unforced errors, they have a good chance to put the clamps on Syracuse’s offense.
Old Dominion @ Indiana: Old Dominion Team Total UNDER 14.5 (-115)
Indiana’s explosive offense earned plenty of publicity as the team cruised to a College Football Playoff berth last season. However, their excellent defense, which ranked third in the FBS in PFF grade, was also a dominant unit. That group should be excellent again in 2025 with the returns of edge defender Mikail Kamara, linebacker Aiden Fisher and cornerback D'Angelo Ponds.
The Hoosiers could flash immediate defensive dominance against a vulnerable opponent in Old Dominion. The Monarchs actually found their offensive groove as last season progressed, particularly in Sun Belt play, where they scored 32 points per game across eight contests. However, they did so with a heavy emphasis on their ground game. That could play right into the hands of Indiana’s defense.
The Hoosiers ranked among the nation’s top 10 teams in PFF run-defense grade, yards per carry allowed and explosive run rate allowed. They were disruptive around the line of scrimmage, pacing the FBS in yards before contact per carry (0.8). Old Dominion's leading rusher from last season graduated, and though the Monarchs ranked 12th in the nation in PFF rushing grade, they are extremely one-dimensional.
Their 46.7 PFF passing grade last season was the third-worst mark in the nation. Starting quarterback Colton Joseph is a talented rusher, but he recorded a 54.6 PFF passing grade last season while accruing just six big-time throws compared to 20 turnover-worthy plays. If the Hoosiers take away Old Dominion’s strength early in the game, the Monarchs are highly unlikely to counterpunch through the air.
Utah @ UCLA: Utah Team Total OVER 28.5 (-110)
In what was once a matchup of Pac-12 rivals, Utah will travel to Los Angeles on Saturday to take on UCLA. Both programs will be breaking in new quarterbacks who are sure to attract the spotlight, but it’s Utah’s ground game that could steal the show against a potentially overmatched defensive front.
Utah’s offensive line is the team's strongest unit. Right tackle Spencer Fano led the FBS with a 93.6 PFF run-blocking grade last season. Left tackle Caleb Lomu is hailed alongside Fano as a potential first-round pick. Left guard Tanoa Togiai ranked seventh among qualified guards with an 84.8 PFF run-blocking grade last season. The Utes possess a front-five that can maul opposing front-sevens, which should work to the advantage of their dynamic new quarterback.
New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier is an excellent athlete who placed sixth among qualified quarterbacks in PFF overall grade last season (89.9). His rushing exploits were on display throughout 2024 as he tied for the national lead among quarterbacks with 54 missed tackles forced. He also placed among the top five quarterbacks in PFF rushing grade and explosive runs. Dampier, along with fellow New Mexico transfer NaQuari Rogers and Washington State transfer Wayshawn Parker, could have a field day against UCLA’s vulnerable front-seven.
The Bruins ranked 97th in the nation in PFF run-defense grade with four future NFL players — Carson Schwesinger, Kain Medrano, Oluwafemi Oladejo and Jay Toia — last season. Those players have departed. Now, UCLA appears a bit barren up front, at least on paper. The Bruins don’t possess a single qualified defensive lineman or linebacker who earned at least a 70.0 PFF overall grade last season.
Multiple factors work in Utah’s favor in this matchup. First is their potential dominance in the trenches in the run game. Second is Dampier’s rushing ability and excellent play-action passing ability. Third is the ambiguity surrounding the Bruins’ new quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, as he transitions to a very different offense from the one he led at Tennessee. The Utes' total being 28.5 makes things a tad tricky if they cut it close, but their rushing attack could dominate this game enough to make that a moot point.
South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech: OVER 52.5 (-112)
South Carolina and Virginia Tech both feature similar offenses based around the talents of their toolsy quarterbacks. Gamecocks star LaNorris Sellers led one of the hottest attacks in the country down the stretch last season. Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones battled through struggles and injuries in 2024 but possesses explosive dual-threat talent himself. Both players could have an opportunity to excel this Sunday.
Sellers is one of the most explosive athletes in college football. His elite arm strength allowed him to post the fourth-best deep PFF passing grade in the nation last season. He brings incredible athleticism and escapability, helping him place sixth among qualified quarterbacks in missed tackles forced and yards after contact per attempt. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech ranked 85th in the FBS in explosive pass rate allowed and let up at least 50 rushing yards to quarterbacks in seven of its 12 games last season.
Drones has an opportunity to show off his dual-threat abilities as well. He ranks among the top 20 FBS quarterbacks in explosive runs and missed tackles forced over the past two seasons. He has also recorded an elite 90.3 play-action PFF passing grade since the start of 2023, which gives the Hokies a desperately needed second dimension to their offense.
Drones’ biggest advantage could be the unproven nature of South Carolina’s current defensive front. The Gamecocks lost a slew of talented players to the NFL, including their top three linebackers, four of their top five defensive tackles and Nagurski Trophy-winning edge defender Kyle Kennard. South Carolina retained just two players in their front-seven who played at least 300 snaps last season: edge defenders Dylan Stewart and Bryan Thomas Jr.
The Gamecocks' defense could take a step back this season, particularly against the run. Virginia Tech could be missing its star linebacker, Caleb Woodson, due to an off-field issue. Both defenses are vulnerable, and both offenses are explosive. This could be a high-scoring affair, especially if the Hokies find their rhythm on the ground early.
Notre Dame @ Miami (FL): UNDER 49.5 (-110)
The final of three top-10 matchups this weekend is a star-studded battle between last year’s national runner-up, Notre Dame, and ACC heavyweight Miami. Both teams carry a ton of talent into the 2025 season but face questions about their passing attacks with new quarterbacks at the helm.
The Fighting Irish will start redshirt freshman CJ Carr, who has played just four career snaps yet won a heated competition with Kenny Minchey for the starting job. Given Carr’s inexperience, Notre Dame is likely to lean on its trademark formula of beating teams with an elite rushing attack and a suffocating defense. Using that blueprint last season, Notre Dame ranked outside the top 100 in offensive plays per game. The Fighting Irish are perfectly content to win low-scoring games.
Miami’s potential for a low-scoring output is borne out of their offensive turnover. Georgia transfer Carson Beck is a more-than-capable starting quarterback, but the Hurricanes lost their six leading receivers from last season, as well as their leading rusher. No player in their refurbished receiving corps accrued at least 500 receiving yards last season.
Miami’s lack of proven receiving options could be an issue against a Fighting Irish squad that led the nation with a 92.9 PFF coverage grade and 13 interceptions when deploying man coverage last season. Beck himself struggled against man coverage while at Georgia, completing just 54.7% of his passes. If the Hurricanes are unable to separate on the outside, the pace of the game will play right into Notre Dame’s hands, as it did so often last season.
The Fighting Irish allowed 17 points or fewer in 12 of their 16 games last season and are likely to slow this contest down. Miami, meanwhile, will likely need some time to adjust to its new personnel while trying to break through Notre Dame’s elite coverage unit. A 27-24 game would make this bet a loser, but it feels like that score is in the upper bands of output possibilities.
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