Betting News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

NFL Betting: Best bets on first half, team total and other betting markets for NFL Super Wild Card Weekend

Seattle, Washington, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff (16) rushes against the Seattle Seahawks during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The sports betting industry has exploded in recent years, ushering in an assortment of new and innovative betting opportunities. At this point, it feels like someone can wager on almost any event occurring during the course of a football game.

Some of the most worthwhile betting opportunities exist in the derivatives market. A derivative is any betting line that is derived from another; the most common example is first-half odds, which are derived from the full-game counterpart. Numerous other options exist, however, spanning from first-half spreads and totals to betting by the quarter.

Bookmakers spend a significant portion of their time and resources handicapping full-game lines efficiently. This helps as a proxy for derivative bets and creates opportunities for those willing to research and find discrepancies in markets that can be capitalized on. Full-game markets get all of the headlines, but the bread is buttered in places where people often don’t look initially.

Before kickoff, we can evaluate individual derivative bets by utilizing some of our predictive models along with team tendencies and production when starting a game. The charts referenced highlight teams' early-game ability through the first 16 weeks of the season. These will be our guide as we continue to look for value in some other derivative betting markets. Our written picks went 1-1 in Week 17, pushing us to 20-16 on the season. 

At this point in the season, team strength is fully understood by most involved in the betting market. There are few, if any, opportunities in the full-game markets, as most of the value that arises is due to recency bias or uncertain injury situations. These are the main reasons why targeting some of the lesser-known markets for inefficiencies is the correct approach as we move toward the end of the season. Let’s dive into the best derivative bets to make for the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend.


Subscribe to PFF+ to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Betting Featured Tools

  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with


Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS.

$9.99 / mo
$79.99 / yr