Player prop “unders” hit 55% of the time between 2017 and 2019, but Week 7 of the 2020 campaign brought a big correction in favor of player prop “overs.” Through Sunday, Week 7 was the first week that a higher percentage of prop totals went over.
|Week||Percentage of “under” wins||Percentage of “over” wins|
The percentage of props going under now sits at 52.9%. At a macro level, it appears that passing attempts are down based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed. Passing touchdowns look like a decent spot to take the overs, especially if offered at a plus-money price. Interceptions could also be up slightly, which is something to look closer at. Rushing-yard props are difficult to take on the over, but they can be extremely valuable unders to bet.
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing our player props tool, as the ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of each prop bet's expected value.
My written plays went 1-4 on Sunday for my first losing week of 2020. Things didn't go as planned, with a few plus-money props barely slipping out of reach. Both Mike Davis and Tee Higgins went over 4.5 receptions on exactly five targets, while both offered value on the under. This still felt like a solid process, as we projected volume and not efficiency. This brings my year-to-date written prop record to 38-28 for +6.45 units.
We are hitting the point of the season when player usage is better understood, so we are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. Some of the props written may not be the most comfortable bets, but taking a loss despite leaning on a sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master.
Let’s take a quick look at what the betting market is implying for Monday Night Football before diving into some of the best player props, according to our tool.