Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. As the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to single-game opportunities.
Our prime-time picks went 12-4 for +10.65 units last week. Our overall record now stands at 58-59 for +13.3 units through the first seven weeks.
Leverage PFF's predictive betting models and player props tool to identify the best betting opportunities in the Green Bay Packers–Arizona Cardinals Week 8 Thursday Night Football matchup.
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PLAYER PROPS
One of the easiest transitions into sports betting is through player props, as fantasy applications help evaluate betting opportunities.
Props are priced for a player's median stat projection in a simple, over-or-under, two-sided market. For historical context, we saw 53% of player props hit the under, regardless of the category, during the 2020 season.
Last week, props leaned toward the under for the sixth consecutive week. The initial takeaway is that bookmakers might be pricing props more efficiently as the season progresses.
Receiving-yardage unders remain the best props to target. Target share is somewhat consistent but more difficult to predict than rushing-attempt share, so reception totals are also a worthwhile betting category. For bettors looking to target overs, rushing attempts and combined rushing and receiving yardage numbers present the best opportunities.
A better way to quantify an edge is utilizing PFF's player props tool, as the ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for the NFL Thursday night game.
QB KYLER MURRAY: Over 2.5 passing TDs (+163)
Murray has returned to MVP form over the last two weeks, throwing for seven touchdowns after tallying just six scores from Week 2 to Week 5.
The biggest threat to this prop cashing is the threat of the Oklahoma product running one in himself. However, Murray's 75.9 red-zone passing grade ranks fourth among all quarterbacks, and the Packers defense ranks 16th in red-zone coverage grade and 24th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per red-zone coverage snap. The weakness is there for Murray to take advantage through the air.
PFF’s player props tool sees significant positive expected value on the over, in large part due to our model’s 50.2% cover probability and the high +163 odds that are being offered.
WR DEANDRE HOPKINS: Over 63.5 receiving yards (-114)
This would be Hopkins’ lowest closing receiving-yards total of the season so far. Yes, the star wide receiver is coming off back-to-back games with 55 or fewer yards, but the matchup and game script of this Thursday Night matchup are simply too good to fade Hopkins again.
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