Entering Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season, our prime-time betting record stands at 30-39 for +0.83 units, thanks to our focus on plus-price offerings. It has been swingy, to say the least, after a 20-unit heater through the first two weeks ushered in a couple of writeups that just couldn’t find a winner. It’s time to get back to our winning ways for Week 5.
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Props are priced for a player's median stat projection in a simple over-or-under, two-sided market. For historical context, we saw 53% of player props hit the under, regardless of the category, during the 2020 season.
Week 1 saw most player props go over, but that corrected heavily toward the under from Weeks 2 to Week 4. Most of the value in betting overs has dried up, though passing touchdown overs for the right players have been profitable so far. Meanwhile, receiving yardage unders and passing interceptions have been some of the easiest ways to find value.
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for the NFL Thursday night game.
WR Cooper Kupp: Over 6.5 receptions (-150)
Kupp hit a wall in Week 4 — along with the rest of the Rams offense — but he was a legitimate Offensive Player of the Year candidate up until then. After Quickly asserting himself as Matthew Stafford’s favorite target, Kupp currently ranks top-five among all qualified wide receivers in a litany of receiving stats, including targets, receptions, yards, yards after the catch, explosive pass plays and receiving grade (84.5).
According to PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Chart, Kupp will line up across from Seahawks slot cornerback Ugo Amadi for 55% of his snaps Thursday Night — and Amadi’s 38.6 coverage grade ranks second-to-last among all cornerbacks with at least 80 coverage snaps. This is a mismatch of epic proportions in Kupp’s favor.
This is an extremely favorable matchup in what should be a very high-scoring game, and tight end Tyler Higbee, Stafford's second-favorite short-yardage option, is questionable with an ankle injury. So, it's no wonder why PFF’s player prop tool gives Kupp a 65.3% chance to catch seven or more passes and cover this prop.