Best Week 5 Thursday Night Football single-game & player props bets | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF

Betting News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

Best Week 5 Thursday Night Football single-game & player props bets

Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) catches a pass in the second quarter against the Arizona Cardinalsat SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Entering Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season, our prime-time betting record stands at 30-39 for +0.83 units, thanks to our focus on plus-price offerings. It has been swingy, to say the least, after a 20-unit heater through the first two weeks ushered in a couple of writeups that just couldn’t find a winner. It’s time to get back to our winning ways for Week 5.

Leverage PFF's predictive betting models and player props tools to identify the best betting opportunities in the Los Angeles RamsSeattle Seahawks Week 5 Thursday Night Football matchup.


Click here for more PFF tools:

Rankings & ProjectionsWR/CB Matchup ChartNFL & NCAA Betting DashboardsNFL Player Props toolNFL & NCAA Power Rankings


PLAYER PROPS

One of the easiest transitions into sports betting is through player props, as fantasy applications help evaluate betting opportunities. 

Props are priced for a player's median stat projection in a simple over-or-under, two-sided market. For historical context, we saw 53% of player props hit the under, regardless of the category, during the 2020 season.

Week 1 saw most player props go over, but that corrected heavily toward the under from Weeks 2 to Week 4. Most of the value in betting overs has dried up, though passing touchdown overs for the right players have been profitable so far. Meanwhile, receiving yardage unders and passing interceptions have been some of the easiest ways to find value.

One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for the NFL Thursday night game. 

WR Cooper Kupp: Over 6.5 receptions (-150)

Kupp hit a wall in Week 4 — along with the rest of the Rams offense — but he was a legitimate Offensive Player of the Year candidate up until then. After Quickly asserting himself as Matthew Stafford’s favorite target, Kupp currently ranks top-five among all qualified wide receivers in a litany of receiving stats, including targets, receptions, yards, yards after the catch, explosive pass plays and receiving grade (84.5).

According to PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Chart, Kupp will line up across from Seahawks slot cornerback Ugo Amadi for 55% of his snaps Thursday Night —  and Amadi’s 38.6 coverage grade ranks second-to-last among all cornerbacks with at least 80 coverage snaps. This is a mismatch of epic proportions in Kupp’s favor.

PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Chart is a fantasy football tool that you can use to help you set the best lineups. You can toggle between showing the Matchup Advantage column against all projected coverage or the individual defenders.

This is an extremely favorable matchup in what should be a very high-scoring game, and tight end Tyler Higbee, Stafford's second-favorite short-yardage option, is questionable with an ankle injury. So, it's no wonder why PFF’s player prop tool gives Kupp a 65.3% chance to catch seven or more passes and cover this prop.

Subscribe to PFF Edge to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Betting Featured Tools

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

    Elite
  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

    Elite
  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

    Edge
  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with

    Elite CFB Prem Stats+
Pro Subscriptions

Unlock NFL Player Grades, Fantasy & NFL Draft

$9.99 / mo
$39.99 / yr

Unlock Premium Stats, PFF Greenline & DFS

$34.99 / mo
$199.99 / yr
College Subscriptions

Unlock College Player Grades and Preview Magazine

$7.99 / mo
$27.99 / yr

Unlock NCAA Premium Stats & PFF Greenline NCAA

$29.99 / mo
$119.99 / yr