Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. And as the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to these single-game opportunities.
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One of the easiest transitions into sports betting is through player props, as fantasy applications help evaluate betting opportunities.
Props are priced for a player's median stat projection in a simple, over-or-under, two-sided market. For historical context, we saw 53% of player props hit the under, regardless of the category, during the 2020 season.
Players are finishing under their posted total at a much higher rate than last season. It has been one-sided for player prop unders overall this year, so you are swimming upstream if you're trying to bet overs in this market. At this point in the season, the path of least resistance is to sweat out some unders, even if it feels uncomfortable at times.
Receiving and passing yardage unders remain the best props to target. And because target share is somewhat consistent but more difficult to predict than rushing-attempt share, reception totals are also a worthwhile betting category.
For bettors looking to target overs, rushing attempts and combined rushing and receiving yardage numbers present the best opportunities, as do the over-one-interception lines for some quarterbacks.
The best way to quantify an edge is utilizing PFF's best bets tool, as the ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for the NFL Thursday night game.
WR Brandon Aiyuk: Under 48.5 receiving yards (-115)
Aiyuk played every single passing-down snap for the Niners in Week 15, and all he had to show for it was a grand total of three targets. In the end, San Francisco had little need for a downfield threat — they controlled the ground game to the tune of 0.145 expected points added (EPA) per play, while Jauan Jennings and George Kittle led the way from a target-share perspective.