Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. As the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to single-game opportunities.
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We couldn’t pass up the NFL Saturday opportunity, so let’s dive into the New England Patriots–Indianapolis Colts game.
PLAYER PROPS
One of the easiest transitions into sports betting is through player props, as fantasy applications are helpful for evaluating betting opportunities.
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet.
Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for Saturday Night Football.
QB MAC JONES under 0.5 interceptions (-115) and QB CARSON WENTZ under 0.5 interceptions (-120)
Jones–Wentz is a duel of quarterbacks who have been among the best at limiting turnovers this season.
Among starting quarterbacks who haven’t missed any significant time to injury this season, Wentz ranks second to Aaron Rodgers in fewest turnovers with six, and Jones isn’t too far behind with eight. The advanced metrics back it up, as both rank top seven in turnover-worthy play percentage, which is even more predictive of future turnovers than raw interception totals.
Additionally, neither the Patriots nor the Colts rank top 10 in team pass-rush grade, meaning the number of plays where Wentz or Jones might be pressured into a turnover will be limited.
PFF’s player props tool sees positive expected value for both of these bets, as PFF's model gives Jones a 54.8% chance to throw no interceptions and Wentz a 57.4% chance to do the same.
QB Carson Wentz over 9.5 Rushing Yards (-121)
Wentz continues to use his legs in high-leverage situations and is averaging over three rush attempts per game in 2021. He has also scrambled on 4.6% of his dropbacks, putting him in the top half of the NFL. We could see these numbers tick up even further against a Patriots defense that's main focus is slowing down Jonathan Taylor.
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