Our over/under bets finished 3-1 last week, so we'll hope to carry that success into Week 12 of the 2021 college football season.
It was all unders in Week 11, and it’ll be under-heavy for this slate. as well. The weather becomes a crucial aspect of betting college football totals at this time of year, and there is a good chance of significant wind in the plains and Rockies in Week 12, as well as plenty of cold weather across the board. It appears we'll steer clear of snow games, but it’s only a matter of time until those come into play.
With that in mind, I’ll go over the biggest edges on the board compared to my model’s projections. Be sure to also check out PFF Greenline, as there's plenty of agreement on these plays.
Florida Atlantic Owls @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers UNDER 64.5
Projection: 60.6
Western Kentucky's passing game has been lighting it up this season, ranking eighth in EPA per pass, but the FAU secondary will have something to say about that. On the year, the Owls rank eighth in coverage grade and field two of the most productive players at their respective positions in safety Teja Young and slot cornerback Korel Smith.
Young’s 88.8 coverage grade ranks ninth among all safeties with at least 100 coverage snaps, while Smith slots into 13th at the cornerback position and has allowed a lowly 37.7 passer rating into his coverage. Overall, the Owls' defense ranks seventh in success rate allowed and looks better equipped to handle this Bailey Zappe-led offense than any team the Hilltoppers have played so far.
Florida Atlantic's offense has held this team back, which helps the case for the under here. A very weak offensive line and receiving corps have been tough to overcome for quarterback N’Kosi Perry, with each unit grading outside the top 100. Perry has actually shown some flashes — namely in the big-time throw department, where he’s tied for 10th (7.1%) — but ranks just 65th in passing grade. The ground game has struggled as well, grading out at 112th.
Western Kentucky has been vulnerable in run defense, but a coverage unit that ranks 26th in PFF grade should make it tough for a Florida Atlantic offense lacking proven pass-catchers. For what it’s worth, this is also one of PFF Greenline’s bigger edges of the week, at 3.3%.
San Diego State Aztecs @ UNLV Rebels OVER 41
Projection: 44.8
San Diego State doesn’t play in many high-scoring affairs, but the over at this price is one that my model and PFF Greenline both agree on. One reason for that is UNLV’s poor defense, which ranks 110th in points allowed per drive. The Aztecs haven’t been any sort of a world-beater this season through the air, but they should be able to move the ball just fine in this matchup, considering UNLV’s pass defense ranks 129th in passing success rate allowed, 115th in explosive pass rate allowed and 118th in pressure rate.
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