Player props have officially entered the mainstream because they are the easiest way for new bettors to profit in sports betting. Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success.
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Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently. Books have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news and digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.
Week 6 broke even, as this article's player prop bets finished 2-2 and slightly down from a units perspective. After a 2020 season that went 92-68 for +17.1 units, things have not gotten off to the right start in 2021. Last week’s break-even finish brings this article to 8-14 for -6.7 units in 2021, and a 100-82 record across the two seasons for 10.4 units won.
Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s turn around the start of this season by finding the best values on the board for Sunday’s Week 7 main slate of NFL action.
ATLANTA FALCONS QB MATT RYAN OVER 2.5 PASSING TD’S (+170)
The spread market has completely flipped from the -2.5 lookahead line, qw the road Falcons are now favored by 2.5. The underlying fundamentals of this matchup tilt heavily toward Atlanta, which is coming off of its bye week after securing its second win of the season in Week 5.
The Miami Dolphins handed the Jacksonville Jaguars their first win of the season in London last week and now have to travel back across the Atlantic to face off against the Falcons on a quick turnaround. Atlanta not only has the travel advantage but also a massive rest advantage against a Dolphins team on the brink of complete collapse.
Miami’s defense has regressed significantly from last season and now sits 23rd in PFF's opponent-adjusted defensive rankings. The Dolphins' secondary is in complete shambles, as their top two starting cornerbacks are out due to injury.
On the flip side, Atlanta looks to be fully healthy, as Calvin Ridley is set to return to action for the first time since Week 4. Atlanta is tied for the second-lowest amount of WAR lost due to injury and could still make some noise as an under-the-radar playoff team.
PFF’s betting model predicts the Falcons to cover despite the significant line movement in their direction. Facing off against a banged-up secondary, an even better betting opportunity could be Ryan going over 2.5 passing touchdowns. At a +170 price, it offers more than enough upside to make this a plus expected value bet.