Best NFL Week 7 Sunday player props bets | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

NFL News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

Best NFL Week 7 Sunday player props bets

London, England, United Kingdom; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) throws the ball before an NFL International Series Game against the New York Jets at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Player props have officially entered the mainstream because they are the easiest way for new bettors to profit in sports betting. Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success. 


Click here for more PFF tools:

Rankings & Projections | WR/CB Matchup Chart | NFL & NCAA Betting Dashboards | NFL Player Props tool | NFL & NCAA Power Rankings


Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently. Books have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news and digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.

Week 6 broke even, as this article's player prop bets finished 2-2 and slightly down from a units perspective. After a 2020 season that went 92-68 for +17.1 units, things have not gotten off to the right start in 2021. Last week’s break-even finish brings this article to 8-14 for -6.7 units in 2021, and a 100-82 record across the two seasons for 10.4 units won.

Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s turn around the start of this season by finding the best values on the board for Sunday’s Week 7 main slate of NFL action. 

Related content for you: NFL Week 7 Odds and Best Bets via Eric Eager and George Chahrouri

ATLANTA FALCONS QB MATT RYAN OVER 2.5 PASSING TD’S (+170)

The spread market has completely flipped from the -2.5 lookahead line, qw the road Falcons are now favored by 2.5. The underlying fundamentals of this matchup tilt heavily toward Atlanta, which is coming off of its bye week after securing its second win of the season in Week 5. 

The Miami Dolphins handed the Jacksonville Jaguars their first win of the season in London last week and now have to travel back across the Atlantic to face off against the Falcons on a quick turnaround. Atlanta not only has the travel advantage but also a massive rest advantage against a Dolphins team on the brink of complete collapse. 

Miami’s defense has regressed significantly from last season and now sits 23rd in PFF's opponent-adjusted defensive rankings. The Dolphins' secondary is in complete shambles, as their top two starting cornerbacks are out due to injury.

On the flip side, Atlanta looks to be fully healthy, as Calvin Ridley is set to return to action for the first time since Week 4. Atlanta is tied for the second-lowest amount of WAR lost due to injury and could still make some noise as an under-the-radar playoff team. 

PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

PFF’s betting model predicts the Falcons to cover despite the significant line movement in their direction. Facing off against a banged-up secondary, an even better betting opportunity could be Ryan going over 2.5 passing touchdowns. At a +170 price, it offers more than enough upside to make this a plus expected value bet. 

Subscribe to PFF Edge to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Tackle Lifes financial Challenges. Western Southern Financial Group.
Sponsor

NFL Featured Tools

  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

    Elite
  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

    Elite
  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

    Elite
  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

    Edge
  • PFF's exclusive metrics provide matchup previews, position rankings, grades, and snap counts.

    Available with

    Edge
  • Our exclusive database, featuring the most in-depth collection of NFL player performance data.

    Available with

    Elite
Pro Subscriptions

Unlock NFL Player Grades, Fantasy & NFL Draft

$9.99 / mo
$39.99 / yr

Unlock Premium Stats, PFF Greenline & DFS

$34.99 / mo
$199.99 / yr