Player props have officially entered the mainstream because they are the easiest way for new bettors to profit in sports betting. Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success.
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Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently, as sportsbooks have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news while digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.
Disaster struck our player prop picks last week, turning in the first 0-4 week in this article’s history. After a 2020 season that went 92-68 for +17.1 units, things have not gotten off to the right start in 2021. Last week’s letdown brings us to 6-12 for -6.3 units in 2021. A record of 98-80 across the two seasons for 10.8 units won.
Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s turn around the start of this season by finding the best values on the board for Sunday’s Week 6 main slate of NFL action.
GREEN BAY PACKERS WR DAVANTE ADAMS OVER 7.5 RECEPTIONS (-142)
Death, taxes and Adams clearing his reception total in a competitive game script — some things feel like an absolute lock, so the question becomes, can the Chicago Bears keep pace with their NFC North divisional rival?
Bookmakers and bettors don’t seem overly confident, as this line continues to move in the Packers' direction. As six-point road favorites, PFF Greenline thinks Bears are the only playable side and would find value on Chicago if the spread moved half a point up to 6.5. The initial spread movement doesn’t indicate this, but other bets in this game market are pricing in a competitive environment.
After clearing 7.5 receptions in three of five games, Adams has the heaviest price on his over thus far this season. He is matchup-proof at this point and on pace for a historic season from a target standpoint. The only thing slowing him down are run-heavy game scripts. Expect Adams to easily clear this number in a more competitive back-and-forth matchup than what is currently being projected.