Player props have officially entered the mainstream because they are the easiest way for new bettors to profit in sports betting. Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success.
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Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently, as sportsbooks have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news while digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.
It has been a bumpy start to the season for this article, as my written plays are currently 3-7. Some of it is due to sitting on the wrong side of variance after a 2020 season where my written plays finished up over 20 units. Week 3 was highlighted by Javonte Williams finishing a half carry short of going over his carries prop and Marquez Valdes-Scantling going over his reception prop on a play that should have been discarded due to a penalty.
But it’s turn around time in Week 4. Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s dive into the best values on the board for Sunday’s main slate of NFL action.
BUFFALO BILLS QB JOSH ALLEN OVER 2.5 PASSING TDs (+131)
By all accounts, Buffalo rounded into its expected form in Week 3. The Bills continue to sit atop the league in pass rate over expectation, and the split is even more drastic in the red zone. Even in an expected blowout, Buffalo is the one team we can trust to keep their foot on the pedal.
Houston has very little chance of slowing this Bills offense. It ranks 31st in PFF's opponent-adjusted defensive grade and is also the second-worst unit in coverage. The Texans apply pressure at the ninth-lowest rate in the NFL and blitz at the third-lowest rate. Allen doesn’t need it, but he will have all day to pick apart this defense. Expect him to easily eclipse this plus-price passing touchdown prop, as the Bills re-establish themselves as one of the best offenses in the league.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS QB PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 2.5 PASSING TDs (-118)