Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. And as the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to these single-game opportunities.
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One of the easiest transitions into sports betting is through player props, as fantasy applications help evaluate betting opportunities.
Props are priced for a player's median stat projection in a simple, over-or-under, two-sided market. For historical context, we saw 53% of player props hit the under, regardless of the category, during the 2020 season.
Bookmakers continue to price props more efficiently as we move through the last few weeks of the regular season. Unders were again all the rage in the NFL for Week 16, the 11th week this season that we finished in the green by blindly betting unders.
At this point in the season, the path of least resistance is to sweat out some unders, even if it feels uncomfortable at times.
Prop units won by week: 2021 season
|Week||Over units won||Under units won|
Receiving and passing yardage unders remain the best props to target. And because target share is somewhat consistent but more difficult to predict than rushing-attempt share, reception totals are also a worthwhile betting category.
For bettors looking to target overs, rushing attempts and combined rushing and receiving yardage numbers present the best opportunities, as do the over-one-interception lines for some quarterbacks.
Prop units won by category: Week 1 to Week 16
|Prop Category||Over units won||Under units won|
|Rushing & Receiving Yards||-64.6||-27.5|
The best way to quantify an edge is by utilizing PFF's best bets tool, as the ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for Sunday Night Football.
RB DALVIN COOK: Over 15.5 receiving yards (-110)
Tailing Cook’s receiving yardage prop comes down to two factors: talent and game script.
While Cook hasn’t graded particularly well as a receiver this season, he still has the hands and explosiveness to make plays out of the backfield. The Vikings staff knows this all too well, as he's seen multiple targets in every game this season. And in Week 17, Cook will get to face a Packers defense that ranks 18th in coverage grade against running backs.
Negative game script is often highly correlated with a running back’s receiving usage. And given that the Packers are 13-point home favorites in this matchup, expect backup QB Sean Mannion and Mike Zimmer’s offense to go to a pass-heavy approach early and often, targeting Cook underneath and out of the backfield.
PFF’s player props tool gives Cook a 52.8% chance to cover this number on Sunday, providing positive expected value for sports bettors.
WR DAVANTE ADAMS: Anytime TD scorer (-150)
Adams has been spectacular in 2021, ranking first among all receivers in PFF receiving grade and second in receiving touchdowns. He also ranks second in targets within 10 yards of the end zone and is tied for first in red-zone receptions.