Player props have officially entered the mainstream because they are the easiest way for new bettors to profit in sports betting. Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success.
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Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently. Books have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news and digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.
Week 14 was another breakeven week, as this article's betting plays finished 2-2; however, one of the three plus-price payouts hit, which means we finished with +.03. After a 2020 season that went 92-68 for +17.1 units, we are now 24-29 for -5.39 units in 2021 — a 116-97 record across the two seasons for +11.71 units won.
Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s find the best values on the board for Sunday’s Week 15 main slate of NFL action.
QB DAVIS MILLS, HOUSTON TEXANS: OVER 3.5 RUSHING YARDS (-106)
The top value play in PFF’s betting tool is Mills eclipsing his rushing yardage prop. Mills has been surprisingly mobile in each start this season, recording 12 scrambles and five designed rush attempts through nine games. He averages over one rushing opportunity per game yet still has a low enough rushing yardage prop to bypass it on one well-timed scramble.
PFF’s betting model projects the Texans to cover the five-point spread in what should turn into a competitive matchup featuring two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Most are projecting a breakout game for Trevor Lawrence sans Urban Meyer, and that outlook helps this entire matchup turn into a shootout. If it does, Mills will take any yards he can get and should easily eclipse his rushing yardage prop on the way to a competitive outcome.