NFL Week 14 is here, and it's time to take advantage of some high-value player props.
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My month of good luck came to an end last week, as this article's plays went 0-3. The Las Vegas Raiders‘ Jalen Richard landed on the COVID-19 list Sunday morning, and Kenyan Drake suffered an injury early in their game. This turned Josh Jacobs into an every-down back, allowing him to catch several more passes than anticipated. The San Francisco 49ers surprisingly struggled against the Seattle Seahawks, which enabled Jimmy Garoppolo to surpass his 29.5 pass attempt prop with 30. The Cincinnati Bengals‘ game script was also unexpected, leading to more Tyler Boyd targets than anticipated.
This article's record now stands at 18-15 on the season.
Leverage PFF's player props tool to find the most valuable bets to make in Week 14.
RB Devonta Freeman, Baltimore Ravens: Over 12.5 carries (+101)
The Ravens started the season with all three of their running backs out for the year, leaving a bunch of free agents to take over. Freeman joined the active roster in Week 2 and worked his way to a starting role in Week 7. He’s played at least 40 offensive snaps in every game since Baltimore's Week 8 bye while receiving at least 14 carries in every game after the team released Le’Veon Bell post-Week 10. Both Freeman and Latavius Murray are healthy, but all signs point toward Freeman continuing to receive the majority of the work.
The Ravens' matchup with the Cleveland Browns is expected to be close. Luckily, game script doesn't change their skill players' fantasy value much. Baltimore runs less often than most teams when winning and passes less often than most teams when losing. As long as Freeman stays healthy and Murray doesn’t get a hot hand, Freeman should receive closer to 15 carries than 12.