NFL Week 13 is here, and it's time to take advantage of some high-value player props.
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My picks went 3-0 again last week. Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon finished with over 17.5 carries before halftime while Pittsburgh Steelers WR James Washington finished well under 2.5 receptions with just one catch in the same game. The only stressful outcome of the week was San Francisco 49ers FB Kyle Juszczyk‘s receiving yardage prop (7.5 receiving yards), as it took him 44 minutes to catch his first pass, but it went for 11 yards. He made another reception in the fourth quarter for good measure.
Leverage PFF's player props tool to find the most valuable bets to make in Week 13.
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WR Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals: Under 3.5 receptions (+127)
Boyd is the Bengals receiver who's been overlooked in a number of games due to Cincinnati's big play receivers on the outside and rushing volume with Joe Mixon. The talented slot receiver received exactly two targets in two of his last three games.
Cincinnati plays the Los Angeles Chargers this week, and it should be another game where Boyd is limited in targets. The outside receivers have much better matchups, as Boyd aligns in the slot on nearly 90% of his snaps, which puts him against all-time great slot cornerback Chris Harris Jr. The only receiver to gain four or more receptions against Los Angeles from the slot has been Tyreek Hill, but Harris missed that game. The Bengals are also the favorites to win, and the Chargers have allowed the most rushing yards to running backs, making this a game where we could see a lot of Mixon.
All of this adds up to Boyd likely only receiving a few targets, which should keep him under 3.5 receptions.