Player props have officially entered the mainstream because they are the easiest way for new bettors to profit in sports betting. Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success.
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Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently. Books have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news and digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.
Week 10 finished with a 2-2 record, which slightly paid off because of a couple plus price bets coming through. Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s string together multiple winning weeks as we move through the second half of the NFL regular season and find the best values on the board for Sunday’s Week 11 main slate of NFL action.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS WR TYREEK HILL OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (-127)
Tyreek Hill's usage in Kansas City's offense has transformed in 2021. His 11.6 average depth of target (aDot) is on pace to finish as the lowest of his career since his rookie season. Over 50% of his targets have come within nine yards of the line of scrimmage, as Hill is turning into the preferred screen target in this Chiefs offense. As a result, Hill has gone over his reception prop number in six of 10 games this season.
The matchup is of little concern, as Hill is expected to line up against Jourdan Lewis on over half of his offensive snaps. Even if the matchup was a concern, Andy Reid seems intent on manufacturing Hill enough touches underneath. If one or two of those happen early in Week 11, then Hill will easily finish over his reception prop in the highest-total game this weekend. If you expect fireworks in this matchup, then no better betting opportunity exists than Hill going over his reception prop once again.