Player props have officially entered the mainstream because they are the easiest way for new bettors to profit in sports betting. Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success.
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Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently. Books have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news and digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.
Week 9 did not go as planned, as this article's plays went 1-3. Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s turn things around as we look toward the second half of the NFL regular season and find the best values on the board for Sunday’s Week 10 main slate of NFL action.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS QB TOM BRADY OVER 2.5 PASSING TDs (+135)
Brady appears to be running away with another MVP trophy, as he is tied for the shortest odds to win. PFF’s player prop tool likes Brady to add to his resume, as it projects him to go over his passing touchdown prop number for the sixth time this season.
The +136 price is the highest number Brady has seen all season and looks like the best player prop to bet on Sunday’s main slate. There are concerns about Tampa Bay's cluster of injuries at the wide receiver position, as the Buccaneers offense has struggled with Antonio Brown out of the lineup. The Bucaneers still rank fourth in EPA generated per pass attempt, and Brady has the third-highest PFF passing grade.
Washington’s defense has not lived up to the offseason hype and ranks as a league-average unit in PFF's opponent-adjusted grading metric. The Football Team's coverage unit has been the weak link, as it ranks 27th in coverage grade.
Tampa Bay rarely takes its foot off the gas and should be more inclined to run up the score on the road. With this matchup sitting at the fourth-highest total in Week 10, expect Brady to have numerous chances to add to his MVP resume this Sunday.