As Saturday nears, much of the value in the college football betting market has dried up. While it’s a more worthwhile strategy to get your bets in early, that doesn’t mean we can’t still find value later in the week.
Here, I’ll go across the board looking at spreads, totals, moneylines and some derivative bets to help you fill out your Week 7 card. For more valuable betting information, be sure to check out PFF Greenline as we get closer to kickoff.
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Arizona State Sun Devils Moneyline (-115) @ Utah Utes
Projection: Arizona State (-128)
The Sun Devils are firing on all cylinders right now and have cruised to three straight victories in Pac-12 play, having scored 105 points to just 46 points allowed in those games. The offense has been a huge bright spot in Tempe, and the defense has played very well in its own right.
|EPA/Play||Success Rate||Offense Grade||EPA/Pass||EPA/Rush||Pass-Block Grade||Run-Block Grade|
|Arizona State (Rank)||7||8||9||8||14||2||18|
Quarterback Jayden Daniels showed plenty of flashes in his first two seasons as a starter but has really taken a step forward in Year 3. His 86.9 overall grade leads all Pac-12 quarterbacks, and his 9.2 yards per attempt and 1.7% turnover-worthy play percentage both rank in the top 20 nationally. He’s also been a big threat on the ground, as he’s forced 17 missed tackles on 28 attempts while picking up 382 rushing yards in the process.
One area where the Sun Devils will have a significant edge on Utah is with their offensive line in the passing game. Arizona State ranks second in pass-blocking grade and seventh in pressure rate allowed, and it will be facing a Utah front that ranks 109th in pass-rushing grade. The Utes’ defense has been solid overall, but Arizona State should have the advantage on that side of the ball.
The Sun Devil defense also matches up well with Utah’s offense. It’s been solid just about everywhere, with a 21st-ranked coverage unit in terms of grades and a 25th-ranked run-defense group. Utah quarterback Cameron Rising had a big day against USC last week but recorded passing grades of 57.7 and 56.1 in his two previous games after being named the starter. Overall, Utah’s passing game ranks 107th in yards per attempt on the year, while the ground game’s -0.19 expected points added (EPA) per rush ranks 114th. Overall, the Sun Devils look like the more complete team going into Saturday night.
Missouri Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies UNDER 59.5
It’s tough to take an under in a Missouri game, considering how this defense has played so far, but I do see value on it at this price. For one, the Tigers could have trouble moving the ball against a Texas A&M defense that ranks fourth in my opponent-adjusted ratings.