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College Football Betting 2021: Week 7 college football over/under value picks

Auburn Tigers quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws the ball at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021. Auburn Tigers leads Alabama State Hornets 20-0 at halftime.

As we get later into the 2021 college football season, weather will continue to be an increasing factor when searching for value in college football totals. However, we're not there yet. Week 6 didn't bring much significant weather, and things look relatively clean again in Week 7.

There’s a chance of rain in the Northeast and the potential for some 20-plus mile per hour winds that could impact a few games out West, but there’s not much to write home about at this point from a weather standpoint.

With that in mind, I’ll go over some of my biggest edges here, as I’m seeing solid value on six games on this slate. Be sure to use PFF Greenline to aid all of your college football betting this week and in the future.

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Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Auburn Tigers OVER 53.5

Projection: 57.9

After Arkansas nearly got to this number by itself against Ole Miss last week, I’m seeing value on another Razorback over this week. This has been a very efficient offense in coordinator Kendal Briles’ system, and it can beat defenses in several different ways:

Team EPA/Play Successful Drive Rate Offense Grade Yards per Pass Attempt EPA/Rush
Arkansas (Rank) 37 30 22 14 18

The run game has been very efficient, and Briles is taking advantage of that by using play action at the sixth-highest rate in the country. Meanwhile, Auburn has surrendered an extremely high 0.419 expected points added (EPA) per play on play-action attempts this season, which ranks 114th in the nation.

Overall, the Tigers have been mostly solid against the run but vulnerable in the back end. They allowed a whopping 10.5 yards per attempt to Georgia’s backup quarterback last week and were picked apart by Penn State’s Sean Clifford a few weeks prior. Arkansas wide receiver Treylon Burks is set up for another big day here, as he’s coming off a 136-yard performance last Saturday and has been a dominant force for the Razorbacks for two straight seasons.

On the other side, Auburn should be able to stay within striking distance of the Arkansas offense. The Tigers’ offense ranks 26th in success rate overall, fielding one of the better rushing attacks in the country. Tank Bigsby has been the backbone, and his 83.4 rushing grade is good for 22nd in the country. Additionally, teammate Jarquez Hunter has been an incredibly explosive weapon in his role in the Auburn backfield, as he’s currently averaging 9.9 yards per carry while producing an explosive run on more than a quarter of his attempts. 

In the passing game, Bo Nix and his aggressive (sometimes too much so) play style has an opportunity for some big gains against a coverage unit that ranks 75th so far in PFF grade. Despite the convincing loss last week, Nix still earned a solid 78.4 passing grade, which actually looks like an incredible performance considering how this Bulldog defense has performed. He’ll likely need a big day here to keep pace with Arkansas' attack.

PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.

Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.

Oregon Ducks vs. California Golden Bears UNDER 54

Projection: 50.1

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